Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study

ABSTRACT Background Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a preclinical stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the factors influencing SCD progression remain unclear. It is necessary to develop a model for predicting cognitive progression in SCD. Methods 96 participants with SCD and 36 hea...

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Main Authors: Wenyi Li, Jiwei Jiang, Qiwei Ren, Min Zhao, Linlin Wang, Shiyi Yang, Shirui Jiang, Tianlin Jiang, Huiying Zhang, Jun Xu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-08-01
Series:Brain and Behavior
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.70719
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author Wenyi Li
Jiwei Jiang
Qiwei Ren
Min Zhao
Linlin Wang
Shiyi Yang
Shirui Jiang
Tianlin Jiang
Huiying Zhang
Jun Xu
author_facet Wenyi Li
Jiwei Jiang
Qiwei Ren
Min Zhao
Linlin Wang
Shiyi Yang
Shirui Jiang
Tianlin Jiang
Huiying Zhang
Jun Xu
author_sort Wenyi Li
collection DOAJ
description ABSTRACT Background Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a preclinical stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the factors influencing SCD progression remain unclear. It is necessary to develop a model for predicting cognitive progression in SCD. Methods 96 participants with SCD and 36 healthy controls (HCs) were enrolled from the Chinese Imaging, Biomarkers, and Lifestyle study between January 1 and June 30, 2022. Of these, 70 completed approximately 12 months of follow‐up visits. Clinical, cognitive assessment, and neuroimaging data were collected. Cox proportional‐hazard regression models were used to investigate the risk factors and construct a nomogram. Results Compared to HCs, participants with SCD had higher Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) scores, indicating they had poorer sleep quality, and had higher cerebral blood flow (CBF) in bilateral hippocampus, thalamus, and left precuneus (all p < 0.05). Poorer sleep quality and left precuneus CBF were independently associated with SCD progression (all p < 0.05). The nomogram constructed with these factors achieved good discriminative ability, with an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI: 0.609–0.960) and a coherence index of 0.840 (95% CI: 0.733–0.948). The calibration curves showed significant agreement between the model and actual observations, and the decision curve analysis of the model showed clinical benefit. Conclusions A predictive model for SCD progression constructed based on risk factors including PSQI scores and left precuneus CBF showed good accuracy and discrimination ability, and it may provide valuable insights for early stage screening of AD.
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spelling doaj-art-23540a87af67458e9ac2824f651ebdff2025-08-20T04:02:32ZengWileyBrain and Behavior2162-32792025-08-01158n/an/a10.1002/brb3.70719Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal StudyWenyi Li0Jiwei Jiang1Qiwei Ren2Min Zhao3Linlin Wang4Shiyi Yang5Shirui Jiang6Tianlin Jiang7Huiying Zhang8Jun Xu9Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaChina National Clinical Research Center For Neurological Diseases, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaDepartment of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital Capital Medical University Beijing ChinaABSTRACT Background Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is a preclinical stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the factors influencing SCD progression remain unclear. It is necessary to develop a model for predicting cognitive progression in SCD. Methods 96 participants with SCD and 36 healthy controls (HCs) were enrolled from the Chinese Imaging, Biomarkers, and Lifestyle study between January 1 and June 30, 2022. Of these, 70 completed approximately 12 months of follow‐up visits. Clinical, cognitive assessment, and neuroimaging data were collected. Cox proportional‐hazard regression models were used to investigate the risk factors and construct a nomogram. Results Compared to HCs, participants with SCD had higher Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) scores, indicating they had poorer sleep quality, and had higher cerebral blood flow (CBF) in bilateral hippocampus, thalamus, and left precuneus (all p < 0.05). Poorer sleep quality and left precuneus CBF were independently associated with SCD progression (all p < 0.05). The nomogram constructed with these factors achieved good discriminative ability, with an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI: 0.609–0.960) and a coherence index of 0.840 (95% CI: 0.733–0.948). The calibration curves showed significant agreement between the model and actual observations, and the decision curve analysis of the model showed clinical benefit. Conclusions A predictive model for SCD progression constructed based on risk factors including PSQI scores and left precuneus CBF showed good accuracy and discrimination ability, and it may provide valuable insights for early stage screening of AD.https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.70719Alzheimer's diseaseneuroimagingprediction modelrisk factorssubjective cognitive decline
spellingShingle Wenyi Li
Jiwei Jiang
Qiwei Ren
Min Zhao
Linlin Wang
Shiyi Yang
Shirui Jiang
Tianlin Jiang
Huiying Zhang
Jun Xu
Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study
Brain and Behavior
Alzheimer's disease
neuroimaging
prediction model
risk factors
subjective cognitive decline
title Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study
title_full Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study
title_fullStr Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study
title_full_unstemmed Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study
title_short Development of a Predictive Model for the Progression of Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Study
title_sort development of a predictive model for the progression of subjective cognitive decline a longitudinal study
topic Alzheimer's disease
neuroimaging
prediction model
risk factors
subjective cognitive decline
url https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.70719
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