A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition
Grey prediction model has good performance in solving small data problem, and has been widely used in various research fields. However, when the data show oscillation characteristic, the effect of grey prediction model performs poor. To this end, a new method was proposed to solve the problem of mod...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5071267 |
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| _version_ | 1832566392482693120 |
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| author | Meng Zhou Bo Zeng Wenhao Zhou |
| author_facet | Meng Zhou Bo Zeng Wenhao Zhou |
| author_sort | Meng Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Grey prediction model has good performance in solving small data problem, and has been widely used in various research fields. However, when the data show oscillation characteristic, the effect of grey prediction model performs poor. To this end, a new method was proposed to solve the problem of modelling small data oscillation sequence with grey prediction model. Based on the idea of information decomposition, the new method employed grey prediction model to capture the trend characteristic of complex system, and ARMA model was applied to describe the random oscillation characteristic of the system. Crops disaster area in China was selected as a case study and the relevant historical eight-year data published by government department were substituted to the proposed model. The modelling results of the new model were compared with those of other traditional mainstream prediction models. The results showed that the new model had evidently superior performance. It indicated that the proposed model will contribute to solve small oscillation problems and have positive significance for improving the applicability of grey prediction model. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-23523e35cbd945a7b1bc66d036f33568 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1076-2787 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-23523e35cbd945a7b1bc66d036f335682025-02-03T01:04:15ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262020-01-01202010.1155/2020/50712675071267A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information DecompositionMeng Zhou0Bo Zeng1Wenhao Zhou2National Research Base of Intelligent Manufacturing Service, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, ChinaCollege of Business Planing, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, ChinaNational Research Base of Intelligent Manufacturing Service, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, ChinaGrey prediction model has good performance in solving small data problem, and has been widely used in various research fields. However, when the data show oscillation characteristic, the effect of grey prediction model performs poor. To this end, a new method was proposed to solve the problem of modelling small data oscillation sequence with grey prediction model. Based on the idea of information decomposition, the new method employed grey prediction model to capture the trend characteristic of complex system, and ARMA model was applied to describe the random oscillation characteristic of the system. Crops disaster area in China was selected as a case study and the relevant historical eight-year data published by government department were substituted to the proposed model. The modelling results of the new model were compared with those of other traditional mainstream prediction models. The results showed that the new model had evidently superior performance. It indicated that the proposed model will contribute to solve small oscillation problems and have positive significance for improving the applicability of grey prediction model.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5071267 |
| spellingShingle | Meng Zhou Bo Zeng Wenhao Zhou A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition Complexity |
| title | A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition |
| title_full | A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition |
| title_fullStr | A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition |
| title_short | A Hybrid Grey Prediction Model for Small Oscillation Sequence Based on Information Decomposition |
| title_sort | hybrid grey prediction model for small oscillation sequence based on information decomposition |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5071267 |
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