Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuits
Abstract Neural circuits continuously integrate noisy sensory stimuli with predictions that often do not perfectly match, requiring the brain to combine these conflicting feedforward and feedback inputs according to their uncertainties. However, how the brain tracks both stimulus and prediction unce...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58311-6 |
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| _version_ | 1849391000612503552 |
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| author | Loreen Hertäg Katharina A. Wilmes Claudia Clopath |
| author_facet | Loreen Hertäg Katharina A. Wilmes Claudia Clopath |
| author_sort | Loreen Hertäg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Neural circuits continuously integrate noisy sensory stimuli with predictions that often do not perfectly match, requiring the brain to combine these conflicting feedforward and feedback inputs according to their uncertainties. However, how the brain tracks both stimulus and prediction uncertainty remains unclear. Here, we show that a hierarchical prediction-error network can estimate both the sensory and prediction uncertainty with positive and negative prediction-error neurons. Consistent with prior hypotheses, we demonstrate that neural circuits rely more on predictions when sensory inputs are noisy and the environment is stable. By perturbing inhibitory interneurons within the prediction-error circuit, we reveal their role in uncertainty estimation and input weighting. Finally, we link our model to biased perception, showing how stimulus and prediction uncertainty contribute to the contraction bias. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-233116cc57d9487b87a72cbf1facfd80 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-233116cc57d9487b87a72cbf1facfd802025-08-20T03:41:14ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-03-0116111510.1038/s41467-025-58311-6Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuitsLoreen Hertäg0Katharina A. Wilmes1Claudia Clopath2Modeling of Cognitive Processes, TU BerlinDepartment of Physiology, University of BernBioengineering Department, Imperial College LondonAbstract Neural circuits continuously integrate noisy sensory stimuli with predictions that often do not perfectly match, requiring the brain to combine these conflicting feedforward and feedback inputs according to their uncertainties. However, how the brain tracks both stimulus and prediction uncertainty remains unclear. Here, we show that a hierarchical prediction-error network can estimate both the sensory and prediction uncertainty with positive and negative prediction-error neurons. Consistent with prior hypotheses, we demonstrate that neural circuits rely more on predictions when sensory inputs are noisy and the environment is stable. By perturbing inhibitory interneurons within the prediction-error circuit, we reveal their role in uncertainty estimation and input weighting. Finally, we link our model to biased perception, showing how stimulus and prediction uncertainty contribute to the contraction bias.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58311-6 |
| spellingShingle | Loreen Hertäg Katharina A. Wilmes Claudia Clopath Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuits Nature Communications |
| title | Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuits |
| title_full | Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuits |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuits |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuits |
| title_short | Uncertainty estimation with prediction-error circuits |
| title_sort | uncertainty estimation with prediction error circuits |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58311-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT loreenhertag uncertaintyestimationwithpredictionerrorcircuits AT katharinaawilmes uncertaintyestimationwithpredictionerrorcircuits AT claudiaclopath uncertaintyestimationwithpredictionerrorcircuits |