Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale

Pseudomonas syringae is a pathogenic bacterium that poses a significant threat to global agriculture, necessitating a deeper understanding of its ecological dynamics in the context of global warming. This study investigates the current and projected future distribution of P. syringae, focusing on th...

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Main Authors: Sameh M.H. Khalaf, Monerah S.M. Alqahtani, Mohamed R.M. Ali, Ibrahim T.I. Abdelalim, Mohamed S. Hodhod
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2024-12-01
Series:Heliyon
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240584402417048X
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author Sameh M.H. Khalaf
Monerah S.M. Alqahtani
Mohamed R.M. Ali
Ibrahim T.I. Abdelalim
Mohamed S. Hodhod
author_facet Sameh M.H. Khalaf
Monerah S.M. Alqahtani
Mohamed R.M. Ali
Ibrahim T.I. Abdelalim
Mohamed S. Hodhod
author_sort Sameh M.H. Khalaf
collection DOAJ
description Pseudomonas syringae is a pathogenic bacterium that poses a significant threat to global agriculture, necessitating a deeper understanding of its ecological dynamics in the context of global warming. This study investigates the current and projected future distribution of P. syringae, focusing on the climatic factors that influence its spread. To achieve this, we employed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze species occurrence records alongside relevant climate data. The MaxEnt model was calibrated using 75 % of the occurrence data, with the remaining 25 % reserved for validation. The model's performance was meticulously assessed utilizing the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS), resulting in an AUC score of 0.92, indicating excellent predictive capability. Our analysis identified key climatic parameters—temperature, precipitation, and humidity—that significantly affect the presence of P. syringae. Notably, our findings project an expansion of the bacterium's geographic range in the coming decades, with optimal conditions shifting toward the poles. This research underscores the significant influence of climate change on the distribution of P. syringae and provides valuable insights for developing targeted disease management strategies. The anticipated increase in bacterial infections in crops highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate these effects.
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spelling doaj-art-232b2938c3be4aabb8491cee25d7ae242025-08-20T01:58:31ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402024-12-011024e4101710.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e41017Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scaleSameh M.H. Khalaf0Monerah S.M. Alqahtani1Mohamed R.M. Ali2Ibrahim T.I. Abdelalim3Mohamed S. Hodhod4Faculty of Biotechnology, October University for Modern Sciences & Arts (MSA University), 6th October City, 12566, Egypt; Corresponding author.Biology Department, Faculty of Science, King Khalid University, Abha, 61413, Saudi ArabiaFaculty of Biotechnology, October University for Modern Sciences & Arts (MSA University), 6th October City, 12566, EgyptFaculty of Biotechnology, October University for Modern Sciences & Arts (MSA University), 6th October City, 12566, EgyptFaculty of Biotechnology, October University for Modern Sciences & Arts (MSA University), 6th October City, 12566, EgyptPseudomonas syringae is a pathogenic bacterium that poses a significant threat to global agriculture, necessitating a deeper understanding of its ecological dynamics in the context of global warming. This study investigates the current and projected future distribution of P. syringae, focusing on the climatic factors that influence its spread. To achieve this, we employed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze species occurrence records alongside relevant climate data. The MaxEnt model was calibrated using 75 % of the occurrence data, with the remaining 25 % reserved for validation. The model's performance was meticulously assessed utilizing the area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS), resulting in an AUC score of 0.92, indicating excellent predictive capability. Our analysis identified key climatic parameters—temperature, precipitation, and humidity—that significantly affect the presence of P. syringae. Notably, our findings project an expansion of the bacterium's geographic range in the coming decades, with optimal conditions shifting toward the poles. This research underscores the significant influence of climate change on the distribution of P. syringae and provides valuable insights for developing targeted disease management strategies. The anticipated increase in bacterial infections in crops highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate these effects.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240584402417048XClimate changeDisease managementGISMaxent modelingPseudomonas syringae
spellingShingle Sameh M.H. Khalaf
Monerah S.M. Alqahtani
Mohamed R.M. Ali
Ibrahim T.I. Abdelalim
Mohamed S. Hodhod
Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale
Heliyon
Climate change
Disease management
GIS
Maxent modeling
Pseudomonas syringae
title Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale
title_full Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale
title_fullStr Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale
title_full_unstemmed Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale
title_short Using MaxEnt modeling to analyze climate change impacts on Pseudomonas syringae van Hall, 1904 distribution on the global scale
title_sort using maxent modeling to analyze climate change impacts on pseudomonas syringae van hall 1904 distribution on the global scale
topic Climate change
Disease management
GIS
Maxent modeling
Pseudomonas syringae
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240584402417048X
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