Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models
Climate change is altering lake ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, disrupting thermal regimes, biogeochemical cycles, and key ecological functions essential for human use such as drinking water, fisheries, and recreational activities. However, climate effects are often studied in isolation and ove...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001499 |
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| author | L.M.V. Soares M. Thouillot V. Frossard O. Desgué-Itier C. Barouillet Y. Baulaz J.-C. Clément I. Domaizon J.-M. Dorioz C. Goulon J. Guillard S. Jacquet E. Réalis V. Tran Khac J.-P. Jenny |
| author_facet | L.M.V. Soares M. Thouillot V. Frossard O. Desgué-Itier C. Barouillet Y. Baulaz J.-C. Clément I. Domaizon J.-M. Dorioz C. Goulon J. Guillard S. Jacquet E. Réalis V. Tran Khac J.-P. Jenny |
| author_sort | L.M.V. Soares |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is altering lake ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, disrupting thermal regimes, biogeochemical cycles, and key ecological functions essential for human use such as drinking water, fisheries, and recreational activities. However, climate effects are often studied in isolation and over short time periods, which limits our ability to quantify the extent and speed of multifaceted ecological changes as well as our understanding of how lakes will evolve under climate change. We present a framework that integrates computer modelling, long-term forecasting, and multi-decadal limnological data to comprehensively evaluate 25 key metrics within the European Water Framework Directive related to lake functioning and ecological status through to 2100. Long-term projections of the effects of climate change were based on lake priority uses: 1) overall functioning, which supports aesthetic value and general attractiveness, 2) drinking water supply, and 3) stock of salmonids. Our findings reveal that although key thermal regime changes have already occurred, higher water temperatures will progressively push deeper salmonid habitat on both annual and seasonal scales. Favourable conditions for salmonids reproduction will exceed tolerance limits by 2050, and fishery management adjustments are needed. Conversely, drinking water supply should remain unaffected until 2100, assuming stable nutrient inputs and pollution levels. This approach offers a tool for forecasting climate change’s impacts on lakes, allowing decision-makers to anticipate measures to ensure long-term ecological and human benefits. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-22bdb6feeb1a4c67b5781a188f2dacfe |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-22bdb6feeb1a4c67b5781a188f2dacfe2025-08-20T03:42:44ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-03-0117211322010.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113220Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake modelsL.M.V. Soares0M. Thouillot1V. Frossard2O. Desgué-Itier3C. Barouillet4Y. Baulaz5J.-C. Clément6I. Domaizon7J.-M. Dorioz8C. Goulon9J. Guillard10S. Jacquet11E. Réalis12V. Tran Khac13J.-P. Jenny14Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, France; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Department of Lake Research 39114 Magdeburg, Germany; Corresponding author.Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, France; Pole ECLA, OFB, INRAE, USMB 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceUniversité Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL 74200 Thonon-les-Bains, FranceClimate change is altering lake ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, disrupting thermal regimes, biogeochemical cycles, and key ecological functions essential for human use such as drinking water, fisheries, and recreational activities. However, climate effects are often studied in isolation and over short time periods, which limits our ability to quantify the extent and speed of multifaceted ecological changes as well as our understanding of how lakes will evolve under climate change. We present a framework that integrates computer modelling, long-term forecasting, and multi-decadal limnological data to comprehensively evaluate 25 key metrics within the European Water Framework Directive related to lake functioning and ecological status through to 2100. Long-term projections of the effects of climate change were based on lake priority uses: 1) overall functioning, which supports aesthetic value and general attractiveness, 2) drinking water supply, and 3) stock of salmonids. Our findings reveal that although key thermal regime changes have already occurred, higher water temperatures will progressively push deeper salmonid habitat on both annual and seasonal scales. Favourable conditions for salmonids reproduction will exceed tolerance limits by 2050, and fishery management adjustments are needed. Conversely, drinking water supply should remain unaffected until 2100, assuming stable nutrient inputs and pollution levels. This approach offers a tool for forecasting climate change’s impacts on lakes, allowing decision-makers to anticipate measures to ensure long-term ecological and human benefits.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001499Process-based modelEcological-Quality Ratio (EQR)ForecastingClimate change |
| spellingShingle | L.M.V. Soares M. Thouillot V. Frossard O. Desgué-Itier C. Barouillet Y. Baulaz J.-C. Clément I. Domaizon J.-M. Dorioz C. Goulon J. Guillard S. Jacquet E. Réalis V. Tran Khac J.-P. Jenny Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models Ecological Indicators Process-based model Ecological-Quality Ratio (EQR) Forecasting Climate change |
| title | Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models |
| title_full | Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models |
| title_fullStr | Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models |
| title_short | Expanding the European water Framework Directive indicators to address long-term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models |
| title_sort | expanding the european water framework directive indicators to address long term climate change impacts on lakes using mechanistic lake models |
| topic | Process-based model Ecological-Quality Ratio (EQR) Forecasting Climate change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001499 |
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