The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency

Effective Strength Index (ESI) is the relative strength of NAO and SO. ESI tendency is the algebraic difference between April-ESI and January-ESI and it represents the simultaneous evolution of NAO and SO from winter to spring. During positive (negative) phase of ESI tendency, NAO restores positive...

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Main Authors: S. B. Kakade, Ashwini Kulkarni
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2012-01-01
Series:Advances in Meteorology
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/934624
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author S. B. Kakade
Ashwini Kulkarni
author_facet S. B. Kakade
Ashwini Kulkarni
author_sort S. B. Kakade
collection DOAJ
description Effective Strength Index (ESI) is the relative strength of NAO and SO. ESI tendency is the algebraic difference between April-ESI and January-ESI and it represents the simultaneous evolution of NAO and SO from winter to spring. During positive (negative) phase of ESI tendency, NAO restores positive (negative) phase and SO restores negative (positive) phase before the beginning of summer season. Thus during contrasting phases (positive and negative) of ESI tendency, the evolution of NAO and SO is out of phase. In this paper we have studied the spatial and temporal variability of winter-time temperature field over Europe, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during contrasting phases of ESI tendency. The study reveals that during positive (negative) ESI tendency, smaller (larger) region of Europe is showing significant winter-time cooling (warming) at surface. The relationship between winter-time surface temperature over above regions and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) also shows spatial and temporal variability. The probable explanation for this change in the relationship is discussed in the paper. Two sets of temperature parameters for two different phases of ESI tendency are found out. Multiple regression equations are developed for the prediction of ISMR in each phase of ESI tendency. The performance of these equations is also discussed in this paper.
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spelling doaj-art-229764a44f1d453c80d3f041d49cc0d22025-08-20T02:04:36ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172012-01-01201210.1155/2012/934624934624The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI TendencyS. B. Kakade0Ashwini Kulkarni1Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, IndiaIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, IndiaEffective Strength Index (ESI) is the relative strength of NAO and SO. ESI tendency is the algebraic difference between April-ESI and January-ESI and it represents the simultaneous evolution of NAO and SO from winter to spring. During positive (negative) phase of ESI tendency, NAO restores positive (negative) phase and SO restores negative (positive) phase before the beginning of summer season. Thus during contrasting phases (positive and negative) of ESI tendency, the evolution of NAO and SO is out of phase. In this paper we have studied the spatial and temporal variability of winter-time temperature field over Europe, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during contrasting phases of ESI tendency. The study reveals that during positive (negative) ESI tendency, smaller (larger) region of Europe is showing significant winter-time cooling (warming) at surface. The relationship between winter-time surface temperature over above regions and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) also shows spatial and temporal variability. The probable explanation for this change in the relationship is discussed in the paper. Two sets of temperature parameters for two different phases of ESI tendency are found out. Multiple regression equations are developed for the prediction of ISMR in each phase of ESI tendency. The performance of these equations is also discussed in this paper.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/934624
spellingShingle S. B. Kakade
Ashwini Kulkarni
The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency
Advances in Meteorology
title The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency
title_full The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency
title_fullStr The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency
title_full_unstemmed The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency
title_short The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency
title_sort changing relationship between surface temperatures and indian monsoon rainfall with the phase of esi tendency
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/934624
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