Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models
Abstract In the context of increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes, an understanding of the impacts of these events on gross primary production (GPP) and thus on land carbon uptake is crucial. However, research utilizing new model outputs to assess the future trends, characteristics, and d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004798 |
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| author | Yuhan Gao Dan Zhu Zhen Wang Zinan Lin Yao Zhang Kaicun Wang |
| author_facet | Yuhan Gao Dan Zhu Zhen Wang Zinan Lin Yao Zhang Kaicun Wang |
| author_sort | Yuhan Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In the context of increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes, an understanding of the impacts of these events on gross primary production (GPP) and thus on land carbon uptake is crucial. However, research utilizing new model outputs to assess the future trends, characteristics, and driving factors of GPP reduction associated with extreme events remains limited. Here, we use model outputs from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of negative GPP extreme events during the 21st century. We find a notable increase in negative GPP extremes globally under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. They are characterized by longer durations and larger sizes, despite the smaller number of events. Under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, while the total negative GPP extremes remain relatively stable, hotspots, including tropical forests, southern China, and boreal forest zones, still experience increases in negative extremes. By attributing these GPP extremes to climate conditions, we identified compound hot and dry conditions, which contributed to over 40% of the negative GPP extremes under both scenarios, as the dominant driver, followed by single‐driver dry conditions. Under SSP5‐8.5, the increasing contribution of compound hot and dry conditions leads to greater GPP reductions through prolonged and intensified negative extreme events. Compared with CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models project an asymmetry of negative and positive GPP extreme events that favors more negative extremes across most regions. Our findings highlight the escalating damage from climate extremes on future ecosystem productivity, emphasizing the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation actions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2295d62c0cde4dd7b2f40b4067f6a6bb |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-2295d62c0cde4dd7b2f40b4067f6a6bb2025-08-20T02:38:24ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-11-011211n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004798Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 ModelsYuhan Gao0Dan Zhu1Zhen Wang2Zinan Lin3Yao Zhang4Kaicun Wang5Sino‐French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing ChinaSino‐French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing ChinaSino‐French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing ChinaSino‐French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing ChinaSino‐French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing ChinaSino‐French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing ChinaAbstract In the context of increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes, an understanding of the impacts of these events on gross primary production (GPP) and thus on land carbon uptake is crucial. However, research utilizing new model outputs to assess the future trends, characteristics, and driving factors of GPP reduction associated with extreme events remains limited. Here, we use model outputs from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of negative GPP extreme events during the 21st century. We find a notable increase in negative GPP extremes globally under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. They are characterized by longer durations and larger sizes, despite the smaller number of events. Under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, while the total negative GPP extremes remain relatively stable, hotspots, including tropical forests, southern China, and boreal forest zones, still experience increases in negative extremes. By attributing these GPP extremes to climate conditions, we identified compound hot and dry conditions, which contributed to over 40% of the negative GPP extremes under both scenarios, as the dominant driver, followed by single‐driver dry conditions. Under SSP5‐8.5, the increasing contribution of compound hot and dry conditions leads to greater GPP reductions through prolonged and intensified negative extreme events. Compared with CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models project an asymmetry of negative and positive GPP extreme events that favors more negative extremes across most regions. Our findings highlight the escalating damage from climate extremes on future ecosystem productivity, emphasizing the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation actions.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004798primary productivityextreme eventscompound eventsdroughtCMIP6climate change |
| spellingShingle | Yuhan Gao Dan Zhu Zhen Wang Zinan Lin Yao Zhang Kaicun Wang Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models Earth's Future primary productivity extreme events compound events drought CMIP6 climate change |
| title | Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models |
| title_full | Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models |
| title_fullStr | Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models |
| title_short | Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models |
| title_sort | projected increasing negative impact of extreme events on gross primary productivity during the 21st century in cmip6 models |
| topic | primary productivity extreme events compound events drought CMIP6 climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004798 |
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