Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐Models
Abstract The Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi‐models predict future warming over Antarctica under five different scenarios, but their uncertainties remain high and have not been well constrained. Here we find that the projected Antarctic warming robustly correlates with s...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112662 |
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| _version_ | 1850275609885802496 |
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| author | Yuqi Sun Yulun Zhang Yetang Wang Petra Heil Shugui Hou Zhaosheng Zhai |
| author_facet | Yuqi Sun Yulun Zhang Yetang Wang Petra Heil Shugui Hou Zhaosheng Zhai |
| author_sort | Yuqi Sun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi‐models predict future warming over Antarctica under five different scenarios, but their uncertainties remain high and have not been well constrained. Here we find that the projected Antarctic warming robustly correlates with simulated averaged temperature trends during 1958–2012 across the CMIP6 multi‐models under each scenario, which is thereby used to refine future air temperature projections using observation‐based temperature reconstruction. The median of future warming projections under the five scenarios reduces by 24%, 19%, 18%, 21%, and 21%, respectively. The constrained uncertainty ranges are narrowed down, with the likely range by the end of the century relative to 1850–1900 baseline declining from 4.2°C–6.8°C to 3.2°C–6.1°C under the highest emission scenario. The application of ERA5 for the same constraint shows an increase in future warming and constrained uncertainty ranges. This suggests a key role of observational data set uncertainties in the performance of emergent constraints. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-227ac09a22014a8d9f6326982283b2b2 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-227ac09a22014a8d9f6326982283b2b22025-08-20T01:50:41ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-02-01524n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112662Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐ModelsYuqi Sun0Yulun Zhang1Yetang Wang2Petra Heil3Shugui Hou4Zhaosheng Zhai5College of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal University Jinan ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal University Jinan ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal University Jinan ChinaAustralian Antarctic Division Kingston TAS AustraliaSchool of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai ChinaCollege of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal University Jinan ChinaAbstract The Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi‐models predict future warming over Antarctica under five different scenarios, but their uncertainties remain high and have not been well constrained. Here we find that the projected Antarctic warming robustly correlates with simulated averaged temperature trends during 1958–2012 across the CMIP6 multi‐models under each scenario, which is thereby used to refine future air temperature projections using observation‐based temperature reconstruction. The median of future warming projections under the five scenarios reduces by 24%, 19%, 18%, 21%, and 21%, respectively. The constrained uncertainty ranges are narrowed down, with the likely range by the end of the century relative to 1850–1900 baseline declining from 4.2°C–6.8°C to 3.2°C–6.1°C under the highest emission scenario. The application of ERA5 for the same constraint shows an increase in future warming and constrained uncertainty ranges. This suggests a key role of observational data set uncertainties in the performance of emergent constraints.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112662 |
| spellingShingle | Yuqi Sun Yulun Zhang Yetang Wang Petra Heil Shugui Hou Zhaosheng Zhai Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐Models Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐Models |
| title_full | Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐Models |
| title_fullStr | Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐Models |
| title_short | Constraining Future Antarctic Warming Under Five Different Emissions Scenarios in the CMIP6 Multi‐Models |
| title_sort | constraining future antarctic warming under five different emissions scenarios in the cmip6 multi models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112662 |
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