Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate Locations
Abstract Influenza epidemics, a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality, are influenced by climate factors including absolute humidity and temperature. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, potentially impacting the duration and magnitude...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2025-04-01
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| Series: | GeoHealth |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH001138 |
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| author | Aleksandra R. Stamper Ayesha S. Mahmud Jennifer B. Nuzzo Rachel E. Baker |
| author_facet | Aleksandra R. Stamper Ayesha S. Mahmud Jennifer B. Nuzzo Rachel E. Baker |
| author_sort | Aleksandra R. Stamper |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Influenza epidemics, a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality, are influenced by climate factors including absolute humidity and temperature. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, potentially impacting the duration and magnitude of future influenza epidemics. However, the extent of these projected effects on influenza outbreaks remains understudied. Here, we use an epidemiologic model adapted for temperate and tropical climates to explore how climate variability may affect seasonal influenza. Using climate anomalies derived from historical data, we found that simulated periods of anomalous climate conditions impacted both the projected influenza outbreak peak size and the total proportion infected, with the strongest effects observed when the anomaly was included just before the typical peak. Effects varied by climate: temperate regions showed a unimodal relationship, while tropical climates exhibited a nonlinear pattern. Our results emphasize that the intensity of weather extremes is key to understanding how climate change may affect influenza outbreaks, laying the groundwork for utilizing weather variability as a potential early warning for influenza activity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-22359727cf384945b718fb1e04fc1e11 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2471-1403 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | GeoHealth |
| spelling | doaj-art-22359727cf384945b718fb1e04fc1e112025-08-20T02:29:03ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)GeoHealth2471-14032025-04-0194n/an/a10.1029/2024GH001138Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate LocationsAleksandra R. Stamper0Ayesha S. Mahmud1Jennifer B. Nuzzo2Rachel E. Baker3Department of Epidemiology Brown University Providence RI USADepartment of Demography University of California Berkeley CA USADepartment of Epidemiology Brown University Providence RI USADepartment of Epidemiology Brown University Providence RI USAAbstract Influenza epidemics, a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality, are influenced by climate factors including absolute humidity and temperature. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, potentially impacting the duration and magnitude of future influenza epidemics. However, the extent of these projected effects on influenza outbreaks remains understudied. Here, we use an epidemiologic model adapted for temperate and tropical climates to explore how climate variability may affect seasonal influenza. Using climate anomalies derived from historical data, we found that simulated periods of anomalous climate conditions impacted both the projected influenza outbreak peak size and the total proportion infected, with the strongest effects observed when the anomaly was included just before the typical peak. Effects varied by climate: temperate regions showed a unimodal relationship, while tropical climates exhibited a nonlinear pattern. Our results emphasize that the intensity of weather extremes is key to understanding how climate change may affect influenza outbreaks, laying the groundwork for utilizing weather variability as a potential early warning for influenza activity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH001138 |
| spellingShingle | Aleksandra R. Stamper Ayesha S. Mahmud Jennifer B. Nuzzo Rachel E. Baker Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate Locations GeoHealth |
| title | Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate Locations |
| title_full | Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate Locations |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate Locations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate Locations |
| title_short | Modeling the Impact of Climate Extremes on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks Across Tropical and Temperate Locations |
| title_sort | modeling the impact of climate extremes on seasonal influenza outbreaks across tropical and temperate locations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH001138 |
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