An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

<i>Background</i>: Early safety outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for severe aortic stenosis are critical for patient prognosis. Accurate prediction of adverse events can enhance patient management and improve outcomes. <i>Aim</i>: This study a...

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Main Authors: Abilkhair Kurmanaliyev, Kristina Sutiene, Rima Braukylienė, Ali Aldujeli, Martynas Jurenas, Rugile Kregzdyte, Laurynas Braukyla, Rassul Zhumagaliyev, Serik Aitaliyev, Nurlan Zhanabayev, Rauan Botabayeva, Yerlan Orazymbetov, Ramunas Unikas
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-02-01
Series:Medicina
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1648-9144/61/3/374
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author Abilkhair Kurmanaliyev
Kristina Sutiene
Rima Braukylienė
Ali Aldujeli
Martynas Jurenas
Rugile Kregzdyte
Laurynas Braukyla
Rassul Zhumagaliyev
Serik Aitaliyev
Nurlan Zhanabayev
Rauan Botabayeva
Yerlan Orazymbetov
Ramunas Unikas
author_facet Abilkhair Kurmanaliyev
Kristina Sutiene
Rima Braukylienė
Ali Aldujeli
Martynas Jurenas
Rugile Kregzdyte
Laurynas Braukyla
Rassul Zhumagaliyev
Serik Aitaliyev
Nurlan Zhanabayev
Rauan Botabayeva
Yerlan Orazymbetov
Ramunas Unikas
author_sort Abilkhair Kurmanaliyev
collection DOAJ
description <i>Background</i>: Early safety outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for severe aortic stenosis are critical for patient prognosis. Accurate prediction of adverse events can enhance patient management and improve outcomes. <i>Aim</i>: This study aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict early safety outcomes in patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI. <i>Methods</i>: We conducted a retrospective single-centre study involving 224 patients with severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVI. Seventy-seven clinical and biochemical variables were collected for analysis. To handle unbalanced classification problems, an adaptive synthetic (ADASYN) sampling approach was used. A fined-tuned random forest (RF) machine learning model was developed to predict early safety outcomes, defined as all-cause mortality, stroke, life-threatening bleeding, acute kidney injury (stage 2 or 3), coronary artery obstruction requiring intervention, major vascular complications, and valve-related dysfunction requiring repeat procedures. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAPs) were used to explain the output of the machine learning model by attributing each variable’s contribution to the final prediction of early safety outcomes. <i>Results</i>: The random forest model identified left femoral artery diameter and aortic valve calcification volume as the most influential predictors of early safety outcomes. SHAPs analysis demonstrated that smaller left femoral artery diameter and higher aortic valve calcification volume were associated with poorer early safety prognoses. <i>Conclusions</i>: The machine learning model highlights of early safety outcomes after TAVI. These findings suggest that incorporating these variables into pre-procedural assessments may improve risk stratification and inform clinical decision-making to enhance patient care.
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spelling doaj-art-21d3e18fa6974af39d655f9fcb1b7f852025-08-20T03:43:10ZengMDPI AGMedicina1010-660X1648-91442025-02-0161337410.3390/medicina61030374An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve ImplantationAbilkhair Kurmanaliyev0Kristina Sutiene1Rima Braukylienė2Ali Aldujeli3Martynas Jurenas4Rugile Kregzdyte5Laurynas Braukyla6Rassul Zhumagaliyev7Serik Aitaliyev8Nurlan Zhanabayev9Rauan Botabayeva10Yerlan Orazymbetov11Ramunas Unikas12Department of Cardiology, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Mathematical Modeling, Kaunas University of Technology, Studentų Str. 50–143, LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiology, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiology, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiology, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiology, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiology, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiac, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiac, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaSouth Kazakhstan Medical Academy, 1 Al-Farabi Square, Shymkent 160019, KazakhstanSouth Kazakhstan Medical Academy, 1 Al-Farabi Square, Shymkent 160019, KazakhstanDepartment of Cardiac, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, LithuaniaDepartment of Cardiology, Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kauno Klinikos, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, 2 Eivenių Str., LT-50009 Kaunas, Lithuania<i>Background</i>: Early safety outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for severe aortic stenosis are critical for patient prognosis. Accurate prediction of adverse events can enhance patient management and improve outcomes. <i>Aim</i>: This study aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict early safety outcomes in patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI. <i>Methods</i>: We conducted a retrospective single-centre study involving 224 patients with severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVI. Seventy-seven clinical and biochemical variables were collected for analysis. To handle unbalanced classification problems, an adaptive synthetic (ADASYN) sampling approach was used. A fined-tuned random forest (RF) machine learning model was developed to predict early safety outcomes, defined as all-cause mortality, stroke, life-threatening bleeding, acute kidney injury (stage 2 or 3), coronary artery obstruction requiring intervention, major vascular complications, and valve-related dysfunction requiring repeat procedures. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAPs) were used to explain the output of the machine learning model by attributing each variable’s contribution to the final prediction of early safety outcomes. <i>Results</i>: The random forest model identified left femoral artery diameter and aortic valve calcification volume as the most influential predictors of early safety outcomes. SHAPs analysis demonstrated that smaller left femoral artery diameter and higher aortic valve calcification volume were associated with poorer early safety prognoses. <i>Conclusions</i>: The machine learning model highlights of early safety outcomes after TAVI. These findings suggest that incorporating these variables into pre-procedural assessments may improve risk stratification and inform clinical decision-making to enhance patient care.https://www.mdpi.com/1648-9144/61/3/374aortic stenosistranscatheter aortic valve implantationearly safety outcomesADASYNrandom forestSHAP
spellingShingle Abilkhair Kurmanaliyev
Kristina Sutiene
Rima Braukylienė
Ali Aldujeli
Martynas Jurenas
Rugile Kregzdyte
Laurynas Braukyla
Rassul Zhumagaliyev
Serik Aitaliyev
Nurlan Zhanabayev
Rauan Botabayeva
Yerlan Orazymbetov
Ramunas Unikas
An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation
Medicina
aortic stenosis
transcatheter aortic valve implantation
early safety outcomes
ADASYN
random forest
SHAP
title An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation
title_full An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation
title_fullStr An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation
title_full_unstemmed An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation
title_short An Integrative Machine Learning Model for Predicting Early Safety Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation
title_sort integrative machine learning model for predicting early safety outcomes in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation
topic aortic stenosis
transcatheter aortic valve implantation
early safety outcomes
ADASYN
random forest
SHAP
url https://www.mdpi.com/1648-9144/61/3/374
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