SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA

The RAS Research Station conducts geodynamic research on the Bishkek geodynamic test area (BGTA) using on-power time-lapse measurements of an unsteady electromagnetic field produced by a grounded electrical line.In order to relate the electromagnetic monitoring signals to the recorded seismic events...

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Main Authors: D. M. Evmenova, Yu. A. Dashevsky, I. N. Yeltsov, A. K. Rybin, S. A. Imashev
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crust 2025-04-01
Series:Геодинамика и тектонофизика
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Online Access:https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1897
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author D. M. Evmenova
Yu. A. Dashevsky
I. N. Yeltsov
A. K. Rybin
S. A. Imashev
author_facet D. M. Evmenova
Yu. A. Dashevsky
I. N. Yeltsov
A. K. Rybin
S. A. Imashev
author_sort D. M. Evmenova
collection DOAJ
description The RAS Research Station conducts geodynamic research on the Bishkek geodynamic test area (BGTA) using on-power time-lapse measurements of an unsteady electromagnetic field produced by a grounded electrical line.In order to relate the electromagnetic monitoring signals to the recorded seismic events, the authors proposed the following characteristics (indicators):a) time of arrival of a maximum value signal at the observation point;b) voltage-time characteristics of the pulse;c) confidence interval for the average daily values of a signal.The sensitivity of these indicators to seismic events was illustrated by the example of a swarm of seismic events (K>8) recorded near the village of Kegety at the BGTA in April 2017. It has been found that, in the period of April 1–17, 2017, the time series of the three indicators contained no temporally synchronized anomalies. However, on April 18–20, 2017, all indicators showed the distinct temporally synchronized anomalies, which can be considered as precursors of the Kegety earthquake swarm whose main shock was recorded on April 21, 2017.The paper substantiates the possibility of using the above-mentioned indicators for medium-term prediction of seismic events. In order to automate the processing of the time series, it is proposed to create a digital platform to analyze a long-term array of electromagnetic monitoring data from all observation points.This paper starts a series of publications on the diffusion kinematics of non-stationary sounding in relation to the problems of electromagnetic monitoring of seismotectonic processes.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2078-502X
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series Геодинамика и тектонофизика
spelling doaj-art-218ae319e987462abb24128e53a7cfe42025-08-20T03:59:45ZengRussian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crustГеодинамика и тектонофизика2078-502X2025-04-0116210.5800/GT-2025-16-2-0817818SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATAD. M. Evmenova0Yu. A. Dashevsky1I. N. Yeltsov2A. K. Rybin3S. A. Imashev4Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Novosibirsk State UniversityInstitute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Novosibirsk State University; Novosibirsk State Technical UniversityResearch Station, Russian Academy of ScienceResearch Station, Russian Academy of ScienceThe RAS Research Station conducts geodynamic research on the Bishkek geodynamic test area (BGTA) using on-power time-lapse measurements of an unsteady electromagnetic field produced by a grounded electrical line.In order to relate the electromagnetic monitoring signals to the recorded seismic events, the authors proposed the following characteristics (indicators):a) time of arrival of a maximum value signal at the observation point;b) voltage-time characteristics of the pulse;c) confidence interval for the average daily values of a signal.The sensitivity of these indicators to seismic events was illustrated by the example of a swarm of seismic events (K>8) recorded near the village of Kegety at the BGTA in April 2017. It has been found that, in the period of April 1–17, 2017, the time series of the three indicators contained no temporally synchronized anomalies. However, on April 18–20, 2017, all indicators showed the distinct temporally synchronized anomalies, which can be considered as precursors of the Kegety earthquake swarm whose main shock was recorded on April 21, 2017.The paper substantiates the possibility of using the above-mentioned indicators for medium-term prediction of seismic events. In order to automate the processing of the time series, it is proposed to create a digital platform to analyze a long-term array of electromagnetic monitoring data from all observation points.This paper starts a series of publications on the diffusion kinematics of non-stationary sounding in relation to the problems of electromagnetic monitoring of seismotectonic processes.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1897earthquaketransient electromagnetic techniqueelectromagnetic monitoringseismic forecastbishkek geodynamic test area
spellingShingle D. M. Evmenova
Yu. A. Dashevsky
I. N. Yeltsov
A. K. Rybin
S. A. Imashev
SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA
Геодинамика и тектонофизика
earthquake
transient electromagnetic technique
electromagnetic monitoring
seismic forecast
bishkek geodynamic test area
title SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA
title_full SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA
title_fullStr SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA
title_full_unstemmed SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA
title_short SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA
title_sort signs of an upcoming seismic event on the bishkek geodynamic test area according to the transient electromagnetic monitoring data
topic earthquake
transient electromagnetic technique
electromagnetic monitoring
seismic forecast
bishkek geodynamic test area
url https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1897
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AT inyeltsov signsofanupcomingseismiceventonthebishkekgeodynamictestareaaccordingtothetransientelectromagneticmonitoringdata
AT akrybin signsofanupcomingseismiceventonthebishkekgeodynamictestareaaccordingtothetransientelectromagneticmonitoringdata
AT saimashev signsofanupcomingseismiceventonthebishkekgeodynamictestareaaccordingtothetransientelectromagneticmonitoringdata