SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA
The RAS Research Station conducts geodynamic research on the Bishkek geodynamic test area (BGTA) using on-power time-lapse measurements of an unsteady electromagnetic field produced by a grounded electrical line.In order to relate the electromagnetic monitoring signals to the recorded seismic events...
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Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crust
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Геодинамика и тектонофизика |
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| Online Access: | https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1897 |
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| author | D. M. Evmenova Yu. A. Dashevsky I. N. Yeltsov A. K. Rybin S. A. Imashev |
| author_facet | D. M. Evmenova Yu. A. Dashevsky I. N. Yeltsov A. K. Rybin S. A. Imashev |
| author_sort | D. M. Evmenova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The RAS Research Station conducts geodynamic research on the Bishkek geodynamic test area (BGTA) using on-power time-lapse measurements of an unsteady electromagnetic field produced by a grounded electrical line.In order to relate the electromagnetic monitoring signals to the recorded seismic events, the authors proposed the following characteristics (indicators):a) time of arrival of a maximum value signal at the observation point;b) voltage-time characteristics of the pulse;c) confidence interval for the average daily values of a signal.The sensitivity of these indicators to seismic events was illustrated by the example of a swarm of seismic events (K>8) recorded near the village of Kegety at the BGTA in April 2017. It has been found that, in the period of April 1–17, 2017, the time series of the three indicators contained no temporally synchronized anomalies. However, on April 18–20, 2017, all indicators showed the distinct temporally synchronized anomalies, which can be considered as precursors of the Kegety earthquake swarm whose main shock was recorded on April 21, 2017.The paper substantiates the possibility of using the above-mentioned indicators for medium-term prediction of seismic events. In order to automate the processing of the time series, it is proposed to create a digital platform to analyze a long-term array of electromagnetic monitoring data from all observation points.This paper starts a series of publications on the diffusion kinematics of non-stationary sounding in relation to the problems of electromagnetic monitoring of seismotectonic processes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-218ae319e987462abb24128e53a7cfe4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2078-502X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crust |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Геодинамика и тектонофизика |
| spelling | doaj-art-218ae319e987462abb24128e53a7cfe42025-08-20T03:59:45ZengRussian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Institute of the Earth's crustГеодинамика и тектонофизика2078-502X2025-04-0116210.5800/GT-2025-16-2-0817818SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATAD. M. Evmenova0Yu. A. Dashevsky1I. N. Yeltsov2A. K. Rybin3S. A. Imashev4Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesInstitute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Novosibirsk State UniversityInstitute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Novosibirsk State University; Novosibirsk State Technical UniversityResearch Station, Russian Academy of ScienceResearch Station, Russian Academy of ScienceThe RAS Research Station conducts geodynamic research on the Bishkek geodynamic test area (BGTA) using on-power time-lapse measurements of an unsteady electromagnetic field produced by a grounded electrical line.In order to relate the electromagnetic monitoring signals to the recorded seismic events, the authors proposed the following characteristics (indicators):a) time of arrival of a maximum value signal at the observation point;b) voltage-time characteristics of the pulse;c) confidence interval for the average daily values of a signal.The sensitivity of these indicators to seismic events was illustrated by the example of a swarm of seismic events (K>8) recorded near the village of Kegety at the BGTA in April 2017. It has been found that, in the period of April 1–17, 2017, the time series of the three indicators contained no temporally synchronized anomalies. However, on April 18–20, 2017, all indicators showed the distinct temporally synchronized anomalies, which can be considered as precursors of the Kegety earthquake swarm whose main shock was recorded on April 21, 2017.The paper substantiates the possibility of using the above-mentioned indicators for medium-term prediction of seismic events. In order to automate the processing of the time series, it is proposed to create a digital platform to analyze a long-term array of electromagnetic monitoring data from all observation points.This paper starts a series of publications on the diffusion kinematics of non-stationary sounding in relation to the problems of electromagnetic monitoring of seismotectonic processes.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1897earthquaketransient electromagnetic techniqueelectromagnetic monitoringseismic forecastbishkek geodynamic test area |
| spellingShingle | D. M. Evmenova Yu. A. Dashevsky I. N. Yeltsov A. K. Rybin S. A. Imashev SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA Геодинамика и тектонофизика earthquake transient electromagnetic technique electromagnetic monitoring seismic forecast bishkek geodynamic test area |
| title | SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA |
| title_full | SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA |
| title_fullStr | SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA |
| title_full_unstemmed | SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA |
| title_short | SIGNS OF AN UPCOMING SEISMIC EVENT ON THE BISHKEK GEODYNAMIC TEST AREA ACCORDING TO THE TRANSIENT ELECTROMAGNETIC MONITORING DATA |
| title_sort | signs of an upcoming seismic event on the bishkek geodynamic test area according to the transient electromagnetic monitoring data |
| topic | earthquake transient electromagnetic technique electromagnetic monitoring seismic forecast bishkek geodynamic test area |
| url | https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1897 |
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