Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions

Abstract Contagions spreading across space—including epidemics, infodemics, and socio-economic turbulence — generate complex geo-spatial patterns shaped by contagion state and risk-driven population mobility. Distribution of resources for mitigating these contagions adds further complexity. We prese...

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Main Authors: Christina M. Jamerlan, Mikhail Prokopenko
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:npj Complexity
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00044-0
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author Christina M. Jamerlan
Mikhail Prokopenko
author_facet Christina M. Jamerlan
Mikhail Prokopenko
author_sort Christina M. Jamerlan
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Contagions spreading across space—including epidemics, infodemics, and socio-economic turbulence — generate complex geo-spatial patterns shaped by contagion state and risk-driven population mobility. Distribution of resources for mitigating these contagions adds further complexity. We present a concise, generic framework to model various contagion types within a space characterized by bounded risk disposition parameters and generalized resource effectiveness. Specifically, we explore how (i) risk-averse behavior of “inoculated” individuals and (ii) resource effectiveness in reducing contagion “incidence” influence pattern formation and spread of infection, opinion polarization, social myths, and socio-economic disruptions. We show that “inoculated” individuals interacting with affected populations may help minimize contagion impact by curbing further transmission. We identify this as a generalized form of shield immunity and explain its emergence in terms of individual risk disposition. This shielding effect is strongest in socio-economic turbulence, moderate in epidemics, limited in social myth spreading, and not observed in polarization dynamics.
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spelling doaj-art-20e39feefd904f7ab86174871d397f9c2025-08-20T03:25:12ZengNature Portfolionpj Complexity2731-87532025-06-012111610.1038/s44260-025-00044-0Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagionsChristina M. Jamerlan0Mikhail Prokopenko1Centre for Complex Systems Faculty of Engineering, University of SydneyCentre for Complex Systems Faculty of Engineering, University of SydneyAbstract Contagions spreading across space—including epidemics, infodemics, and socio-economic turbulence — generate complex geo-spatial patterns shaped by contagion state and risk-driven population mobility. Distribution of resources for mitigating these contagions adds further complexity. We present a concise, generic framework to model various contagion types within a space characterized by bounded risk disposition parameters and generalized resource effectiveness. Specifically, we explore how (i) risk-averse behavior of “inoculated” individuals and (ii) resource effectiveness in reducing contagion “incidence” influence pattern formation and spread of infection, opinion polarization, social myths, and socio-economic disruptions. We show that “inoculated” individuals interacting with affected populations may help minimize contagion impact by curbing further transmission. We identify this as a generalized form of shield immunity and explain its emergence in terms of individual risk disposition. This shielding effect is strongest in socio-economic turbulence, moderate in epidemics, limited in social myth spreading, and not observed in polarization dynamics.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00044-0
spellingShingle Christina M. Jamerlan
Mikhail Prokopenko
Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
npj Complexity
title Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
title_full Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
title_fullStr Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
title_full_unstemmed Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
title_short Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
title_sort emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00044-0
work_keys_str_mv AT christinamjamerlan emergenceofshieldimmunityduringspatialcontagions
AT mikhailprokopenko emergenceofshieldimmunityduringspatialcontagions