Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions
Abstract Contagions spreading across space—including epidemics, infodemics, and socio-economic turbulence — generate complex geo-spatial patterns shaped by contagion state and risk-driven population mobility. Distribution of resources for mitigating these contagions adds further complexity. We prese...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | npj Complexity |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00044-0 |
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| _version_ | 1849470214028132352 |
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| author | Christina M. Jamerlan Mikhail Prokopenko |
| author_facet | Christina M. Jamerlan Mikhail Prokopenko |
| author_sort | Christina M. Jamerlan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Contagions spreading across space—including epidemics, infodemics, and socio-economic turbulence — generate complex geo-spatial patterns shaped by contagion state and risk-driven population mobility. Distribution of resources for mitigating these contagions adds further complexity. We present a concise, generic framework to model various contagion types within a space characterized by bounded risk disposition parameters and generalized resource effectiveness. Specifically, we explore how (i) risk-averse behavior of “inoculated” individuals and (ii) resource effectiveness in reducing contagion “incidence” influence pattern formation and spread of infection, opinion polarization, social myths, and socio-economic disruptions. We show that “inoculated” individuals interacting with affected populations may help minimize contagion impact by curbing further transmission. We identify this as a generalized form of shield immunity and explain its emergence in terms of individual risk disposition. This shielding effect is strongest in socio-economic turbulence, moderate in epidemics, limited in social myth spreading, and not observed in polarization dynamics. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-20e39feefd904f7ab86174871d397f9c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2731-8753 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-20e39feefd904f7ab86174871d397f9c2025-08-20T03:25:12ZengNature Portfolionpj Complexity2731-87532025-06-012111610.1038/s44260-025-00044-0Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagionsChristina M. Jamerlan0Mikhail Prokopenko1Centre for Complex Systems Faculty of Engineering, University of SydneyCentre for Complex Systems Faculty of Engineering, University of SydneyAbstract Contagions spreading across space—including epidemics, infodemics, and socio-economic turbulence — generate complex geo-spatial patterns shaped by contagion state and risk-driven population mobility. Distribution of resources for mitigating these contagions adds further complexity. We present a concise, generic framework to model various contagion types within a space characterized by bounded risk disposition parameters and generalized resource effectiveness. Specifically, we explore how (i) risk-averse behavior of “inoculated” individuals and (ii) resource effectiveness in reducing contagion “incidence” influence pattern formation and spread of infection, opinion polarization, social myths, and socio-economic disruptions. We show that “inoculated” individuals interacting with affected populations may help minimize contagion impact by curbing further transmission. We identify this as a generalized form of shield immunity and explain its emergence in terms of individual risk disposition. This shielding effect is strongest in socio-economic turbulence, moderate in epidemics, limited in social myth spreading, and not observed in polarization dynamics.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00044-0 |
| spellingShingle | Christina M. Jamerlan Mikhail Prokopenko Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions npj Complexity |
| title | Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions |
| title_full | Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions |
| title_fullStr | Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions |
| title_short | Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions |
| title_sort | emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00044-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT christinamjamerlan emergenceofshieldimmunityduringspatialcontagions AT mikhailprokopenko emergenceofshieldimmunityduringspatialcontagions |