Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in Pakistan
Abstract Climate change is a significant driver of biodiversity loss impacting an estimated 15–30% of known species by the end of the 21st century. We assessed current suitable habitat and projected future distribution of barking deer (Muntiacus vaginalis) across three climate change scenarios (SSP1...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-14661-1 |
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| author | Muhammad Raqeeb Hammad Bin Shoukat Muhammad Kabir Alina Mushtaq Siddiqa Qasim Tariq Mahmood Jerrold L. Belant Faraz Akrim |
| author_facet | Muhammad Raqeeb Hammad Bin Shoukat Muhammad Kabir Alina Mushtaq Siddiqa Qasim Tariq Mahmood Jerrold L. Belant Faraz Akrim |
| author_sort | Muhammad Raqeeb |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is a significant driver of biodiversity loss impacting an estimated 15–30% of known species by the end of the 21st century. We assessed current suitable habitat and projected future distribution of barking deer (Muntiacus vaginalis) across three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in northern Pakistan using 99 occurrence records from remote camera during 2021–2023. We obtained bioclimatic data for current (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) periods from the WorldClim database using the Hadley Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC31-LL). We used MaxEnt software to predict current and future distributions of barking deer habitat, and changes in suitable habitat across these periods. The model had excellent performance (AUC = 0.936, TSS = 0.823) and jackknife tests showed that precipitation seasonality (Bio15) contributed 32.2% to model predictions, temperature seasonality (Bio4) 28.5%, and annual mean temperature (Bio1) 27.0%. In the current period, highly suitable habitat for barking deer represented 3.7%, moderately suitable habitat 4.4%, less suitable habitat 6.8%, and unsuitable habitat 85.1% of the study area. The gain in suitable habitat was greatest (30.2%) under SSP2-4.5 during 2061–2080. The predicted loss in the suitable habitat of barking deer across all periods was (19.7–23.3%) while the greatest loss (23.3%) was under SSP1-2.6 during 2061–2080. Overall, climate change is projected to result in an overall net gain in suitable habitat for barking deer. Future conservation efforts for barking deer should target currently suitable habitat forecasted to remain suitable. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-20a1e4f30d6041c0af5d653b0c144d00 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| spelling | doaj-art-20a1e4f30d6041c0af5d653b0c144d002025-08-20T03:05:26ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-08-0115111310.1038/s41598-025-14661-1Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in PakistanMuhammad Raqeeb0Hammad Bin Shoukat1Muhammad Kabir2Alina Mushtaq3Siddiqa Qasim4Tariq Mahmood5Jerrold L. Belant6Faraz Akrim7Department of Zoology, University of KotliDepartment of Zoology, University of KotliWildlife Ecology Lab, Department of Forestry & Wildlife Management, University of HaripurDepartment of Zoology, University of KotliDepartment of Zoology Wildlife and Fisheries, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture UniversityDepartment of Zoology Wildlife and Fisheries, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture UniversityDepartment of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State UniversityDepartment of Zoology, University of KotliAbstract Climate change is a significant driver of biodiversity loss impacting an estimated 15–30% of known species by the end of the 21st century. We assessed current suitable habitat and projected future distribution of barking deer (Muntiacus vaginalis) across three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in northern Pakistan using 99 occurrence records from remote camera during 2021–2023. We obtained bioclimatic data for current (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) periods from the WorldClim database using the Hadley Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC31-LL). We used MaxEnt software to predict current and future distributions of barking deer habitat, and changes in suitable habitat across these periods. The model had excellent performance (AUC = 0.936, TSS = 0.823) and jackknife tests showed that precipitation seasonality (Bio15) contributed 32.2% to model predictions, temperature seasonality (Bio4) 28.5%, and annual mean temperature (Bio1) 27.0%. In the current period, highly suitable habitat for barking deer represented 3.7%, moderately suitable habitat 4.4%, less suitable habitat 6.8%, and unsuitable habitat 85.1% of the study area. The gain in suitable habitat was greatest (30.2%) under SSP2-4.5 during 2061–2080. The predicted loss in the suitable habitat of barking deer across all periods was (19.7–23.3%) while the greatest loss (23.3%) was under SSP1-2.6 during 2061–2080. Overall, climate change is projected to result in an overall net gain in suitable habitat for barking deer. Future conservation efforts for barking deer should target currently suitable habitat forecasted to remain suitable.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-14661-1Muntiacus vaginalisHabitat suitabilitySpecies distribution modelingMaxEnt |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Raqeeb Hammad Bin Shoukat Muhammad Kabir Alina Mushtaq Siddiqa Qasim Tariq Mahmood Jerrold L. Belant Faraz Akrim Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in Pakistan Scientific Reports Muntiacus vaginalis Habitat suitability Species distribution modeling MaxEnt |
| title | Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in Pakistan |
| title_full | Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in Pakistan |
| title_short | Forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in Pakistan |
| title_sort | forecasting impacts of climate change on barking deer distribution in pakistan |
| topic | Muntiacus vaginalis Habitat suitability Species distribution modeling MaxEnt |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-14661-1 |
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