Data-Based Parametrization for Affine GARCH Models Across Multiple Time Scales—Roughness Implications
This paper revisits the topic of time-scale parameterizations of the Heston–Nandi GARCH (1,1) model to create a new, theoretically valid setting compatible with real financial data. We first estimate parameters using three US market indices and six frequencies to let data reveal the correct, data-im...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Econometrics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/13/1/6 |
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| Summary: | This paper revisits the topic of time-scale parameterizations of the Heston–Nandi GARCH (1,1) model to create a new, theoretically valid setting compatible with real financial data. We first estimate parameters using three US market indices and six frequencies to let data reveal the correct, data-implied, time-scale parameterizations. We compared the data-implied parametrization to two popular candidates in the literature, demonstrating structurally different continuous-time limits, i.e., the data favor fractional Brownian motion (fBM)—instead of the standard Brownian motion (BM)-based parametrization. We then propose a theoretically flexible time-scale parameterization compatible with this fBM behavior. In this context, a fractional derivative analysis of our empirically based parametrization is performed, confirming an anomalous diffusion in the continuous-time limit. Such a finding is yet another endorsement of the recent and popular stylized fact known as rough volatility. |
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| ISSN: | 2225-1146 |