Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades
Abstract Background Vertebral fractures are linked to significant disability and mortality risks. Yet, existing studies on their global burden are outdated and lack predictive foresight. Methods Public data from the 2021 GBD study were analyzed to assess the global burden and epidemiological trends...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13018-025-05915-9 |
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| author | Honghui Lei Zebin Huang Fangyong Wang Tao Liu Yang Yu Sitong Su Meiling Cheng Haoyuan Chen |
| author_facet | Honghui Lei Zebin Huang Fangyong Wang Tao Liu Yang Yu Sitong Su Meiling Cheng Haoyuan Chen |
| author_sort | Honghui Lei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Vertebral fractures are linked to significant disability and mortality risks. Yet, existing studies on their global burden are outdated and lack predictive foresight. Methods Public data from the 2021 GBD study were analyzed to assess the global burden and epidemiological trends of vertebral fractures. The annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to represent temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. Machine learning was used to predict the global burden of vertebral fractures over the next 30 years. Results From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of vertebral fractures significantly decreased. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) showed the largest decline in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC: -1.5; 95% CI: -2.0 to -1.0), while North Africa and the Middle East were the only regions to report an increase (EAPC: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1 to 0.5). For age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), High-income Asia Pacific saw the steepest decline (EAPC: -1.4; 95% CI: -1.5 to -1.2), while the Caribbean experienced the largest increase (EAPC: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.4 to 1.3). Similarly, in terms of age-standardized years lived with disability rates (ASYR), the most substantial reduction occurred in High-income Asia Pacific (EAPC: -1.4; 95% CI: -1.5 to -1.3), with the Caribbean again showing the greatest rise (EAPC: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.3 to 1.2). Males generally exhibited higher age-standardized rates (ASRs) than females, although females aged 65–70 years old surpassed males. Predictive models suggest continued declines in global ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR by 2050. Conclusions Our study shows a steady reduction in the global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021. Nevertheless, disparities remain across regions, with a positive correlation between ASRs with SDI. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-2031493c0ecd49fdb67e3a0f6f5ef68d |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1749-799X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-2031493c0ecd49fdb67e3a0f6f5ef68d2025-08-20T03:10:30ZengBMCJournal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research1749-799X2025-05-0120111510.1186/s13018-025-05915-9Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decadesHonghui Lei0Zebin Huang1Fangyong Wang2Tao Liu3Yang Yu4Sitong Su5Meiling Cheng6Haoyuan Chen7School of Rehabilitation Medicine, Capital Medical UniversitySchool of Biological Science and Medical Engineering, Beihang UniversitySchool of Rehabilitation Medicine, Capital Medical UniversitySchool of Rehabilitation Medicine, Capital Medical UniversitySchool of Rehabilitation Medicine, Capital Medical UniversitySchool of Rehabilitation Medicine, Capital Medical UniversityThe Second Clinical College of Wenzhou Medical UniversitySchool of Rehabilitation Medicine, Capital Medical UniversityAbstract Background Vertebral fractures are linked to significant disability and mortality risks. Yet, existing studies on their global burden are outdated and lack predictive foresight. Methods Public data from the 2021 GBD study were analyzed to assess the global burden and epidemiological trends of vertebral fractures. The annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to represent temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. Machine learning was used to predict the global burden of vertebral fractures over the next 30 years. Results From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of vertebral fractures significantly decreased. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) showed the largest decline in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC: -1.5; 95% CI: -2.0 to -1.0), while North Africa and the Middle East were the only regions to report an increase (EAPC: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1 to 0.5). For age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), High-income Asia Pacific saw the steepest decline (EAPC: -1.4; 95% CI: -1.5 to -1.2), while the Caribbean experienced the largest increase (EAPC: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.4 to 1.3). Similarly, in terms of age-standardized years lived with disability rates (ASYR), the most substantial reduction occurred in High-income Asia Pacific (EAPC: -1.4; 95% CI: -1.5 to -1.3), with the Caribbean again showing the greatest rise (EAPC: 0.8; 95% CI: 0.3 to 1.2). Males generally exhibited higher age-standardized rates (ASRs) than females, although females aged 65–70 years old surpassed males. Predictive models suggest continued declines in global ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR by 2050. Conclusions Our study shows a steady reduction in the global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021. Nevertheless, disparities remain across regions, with a positive correlation between ASRs with SDI.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13018-025-05915-9Global burden of disease studyVertebral fracturesEpidemiological science |
| spellingShingle | Honghui Lei Zebin Huang Fangyong Wang Tao Liu Yang Yu Sitong Su Meiling Cheng Haoyuan Chen Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research Global burden of disease study Vertebral fractures Epidemiological science |
| title | Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades |
| title_full | Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades |
| title_fullStr | Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades |
| title_short | Global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades |
| title_sort | global burden of vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next three decades |
| topic | Global burden of disease study Vertebral fractures Epidemiological science |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13018-025-05915-9 |
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