Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007
American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL....
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2014-01-01
|
| Series: | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/461013 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849307053667909632 |
|---|---|
| author | Juan Carlos Rosales Hyun Mo Yang Orlando José Avila Blas |
| author_facet | Juan Carlos Rosales Hyun Mo Yang Orlando José Avila Blas |
| author_sort | Juan Carlos Rosales |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985–2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997–2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005–2007. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-201e18d6061e40459e92a15d2aa3c6bb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-708X 1687-7098 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-201e18d6061e40459e92a15d2aa3c6bb2025-08-20T03:54:52ZengWileyInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases1687-708X1687-70982014-01-01201410.1155/2014/461013461013Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007Juan Carlos Rosales0Hyun Mo Yang1Orlando José Avila Blas2Departamento de Matemática, Facultad de Cs. Exactas, U.N.Sa, Avenue Bolivia 5150, A4408FVY Salta, Salta Province, ArgentinaEPIFISMA, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, CP 6065, 13083-859 Campinas, SP, BrazilDepartamento de Matemática, Facultad de Cs. Exactas, U.N.Sa, Avenue Bolivia 5150, A4408FVY Salta, Salta Province, ArgentinaAmerican tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985–2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997–2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005–2007.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/461013 |
| spellingShingle | Juan Carlos Rosales Hyun Mo Yang Orlando José Avila Blas Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007 Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| title | Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007 |
| title_full | Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007 |
| title_fullStr | Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007 |
| title_short | Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007 |
| title_sort | variability modeling of rainfall deforestation and incidence of american tegumentary leishmaniasis in oran argentina 1985 2007 |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/461013 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT juancarlosrosales variabilitymodelingofrainfalldeforestationandincidenceofamericantegumentaryleishmaniasisinoranargentina19852007 AT hyunmoyang variabilitymodelingofrainfalldeforestationandincidenceofamericantegumentaryleishmaniasisinoranargentina19852007 AT orlandojoseavilablas variabilitymodelingofrainfalldeforestationandincidenceofamericantegumentaryleishmaniasisinoranargentina19852007 |