An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven Approach
Abstract Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset, which marks the beginning of the South Asian monsoon, has significant implications on monsoon characteristics and subsequent nationwide agricultural planning. Here we make the most skillful prediction of monsoon onset with a physics‐guided data‐dri...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-08-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078319 |
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| author | A. S. Sahana Subimal Ghosh |
| author_facet | A. S. Sahana Subimal Ghosh |
| author_sort | A. S. Sahana |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset, which marks the beginning of the South Asian monsoon, has significant implications on monsoon characteristics and subsequent nationwide agricultural planning. Here we make the most skillful prediction of monsoon onset with a physics‐guided data‐driven model integrated with the operational monsoon prediction by Coupled Forecast System version 2. Drivers of the variability of onset, which are well simulated by Coupled Forecast System version 2, viz., tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, reversal of tropospheric temperature gradient and strengthening of westerlies over AS during the early summer are identified as potential predictors. Data‐driven method, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, makes the final selection of predictors for the linear regression model of onset. We obtain an improved correlation of 0.6 between simulated and observed onset dates with the proposed integrated statistical dynamical model as compared to 0.44 obtained with the operational dynamic monsoon prediction model. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1f86f6843a8146e9a8ebd1f444230d42 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-1f86f6843a8146e9a8ebd1f444230d422025-08-20T02:46:20ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-08-0145168510851810.1029/2018GL078319An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven ApproachA. S. Sahana0Subimal Ghosh1Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Bombay IndiaDepartment of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Bombay IndiaAbstract Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset, which marks the beginning of the South Asian monsoon, has significant implications on monsoon characteristics and subsequent nationwide agricultural planning. Here we make the most skillful prediction of monsoon onset with a physics‐guided data‐driven model integrated with the operational monsoon prediction by Coupled Forecast System version 2. Drivers of the variability of onset, which are well simulated by Coupled Forecast System version 2, viz., tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, reversal of tropospheric temperature gradient and strengthening of westerlies over AS during the early summer are identified as potential predictors. Data‐driven method, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, makes the final selection of predictors for the linear regression model of onset. We obtain an improved correlation of 0.6 between simulated and observed onset dates with the proposed integrated statistical dynamical model as compared to 0.44 obtained with the operational dynamic monsoon prediction model.https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078319monsoon onsetCFSv2LASSOforecast of onset |
| spellingShingle | A. S. Sahana Subimal Ghosh An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven Approach Geophysical Research Letters monsoon onset CFSv2 LASSO forecast of onset |
| title | An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven Approach |
| title_full | An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven Approach |
| title_fullStr | An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven Approach |
| title_short | An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State‐of‐the‐Art Dynamic Model Using Physics‐Guided Data‐Driven Approach |
| title_sort | improved prediction of indian summer monsoon onset from state of the art dynamic model using physics guided data driven approach |
| topic | monsoon onset CFSv2 LASSO forecast of onset |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078319 |
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