A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based study
Abstract Background Young triple negative breast cancer (YTNBC) patients often face poor survival outcomes. Given the high-risk nature of YTNBC, there is an urgent need for tools that can accurately predict patient outcomes and guide personalized treatment strategies. Prognostic models, particularly...
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| Format: | Article |
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Springer
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Discover Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s12672-025-02732-8 |
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| author | Guangwen Zhang Xinle Wang Chen Cheng Shiming Wang Yujun Guo |
| author_facet | Guangwen Zhang Xinle Wang Chen Cheng Shiming Wang Yujun Guo |
| author_sort | Guangwen Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Young triple negative breast cancer (YTNBC) patients often face poor survival outcomes. Given the high-risk nature of YTNBC, there is an urgent need for tools that can accurately predict patient outcomes and guide personalized treatment strategies. Prognostic models, particularly those in the form of nomograms, have gained popularity in oncology for their ability to integrate multiple clinical variables to estimate individual patient survival. Our study aimed to investigate independent prognostic factors in YTNBC patients and develop a nomogram to predict OS, thereby helping patients choose a better therapeutic approach. Methods Patients diagnosed with YTNBC between January 2010 and December 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were conducted to identify significant factors associated with prognosis, which were then used to construct a nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. Results Nine survival predictors (marital status, tumor grade, AJCC stage, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, bone metastases, brain metastases) were selected for nomogram construction. The concordance indexes (C-index), in the training and validation cohorts were 0.749 and 0.745, respectively. The nomogram model demonstrated good calibration, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves confirmed its superiority for clinical utility. Additionally, Kaplan–Meier survival curves of various independent prognostic factors validated the model. Conclusions The novel nomogram serves as a reliable tool for predicting survival, aiding clinicians in identifying high-risk patients and devising individualized treatments. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1f6e96d98dce435997fc5b9d8fb3865e |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2730-6011 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discover Oncology |
| spelling | doaj-art-1f6e96d98dce435997fc5b9d8fb3865e2025-08-20T01:53:14ZengSpringerDiscover Oncology2730-60112025-05-0116111310.1007/s12672-025-02732-8A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based studyGuangwen Zhang0Xinle Wang1Chen Cheng2Shiming Wang3Yujun Guo4First Clinical Medical College of Shanxi Medical UniversityFirst Clinical Medical College of Shanxi Medical UniversityFirst Clinical Medical College of Shanxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Breast Surgery, First Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityDepartment of Breast Surgery, First Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityAbstract Background Young triple negative breast cancer (YTNBC) patients often face poor survival outcomes. Given the high-risk nature of YTNBC, there is an urgent need for tools that can accurately predict patient outcomes and guide personalized treatment strategies. Prognostic models, particularly those in the form of nomograms, have gained popularity in oncology for their ability to integrate multiple clinical variables to estimate individual patient survival. Our study aimed to investigate independent prognostic factors in YTNBC patients and develop a nomogram to predict OS, thereby helping patients choose a better therapeutic approach. Methods Patients diagnosed with YTNBC between January 2010 and December 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were conducted to identify significant factors associated with prognosis, which were then used to construct a nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. Results Nine survival predictors (marital status, tumor grade, AJCC stage, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, bone metastases, brain metastases) were selected for nomogram construction. The concordance indexes (C-index), in the training and validation cohorts were 0.749 and 0.745, respectively. The nomogram model demonstrated good calibration, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves confirmed its superiority for clinical utility. Additionally, Kaplan–Meier survival curves of various independent prognostic factors validated the model. Conclusions The novel nomogram serves as a reliable tool for predicting survival, aiding clinicians in identifying high-risk patients and devising individualized treatments.https://doi.org/10.1007/s12672-025-02732-8Young triple negative breast cancerNomogramPrognosisOverall survivalPrediction |
| spellingShingle | Guangwen Zhang Xinle Wang Chen Cheng Shiming Wang Yujun Guo A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based study Discover Oncology Young triple negative breast cancer Nomogram Prognosis Overall survival Prediction |
| title | A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_full | A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_fullStr | A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_short | A nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple-negative breast cancer patients: a population-based study |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting overall survival in young triple negative breast cancer patients a population based study |
| topic | Young triple negative breast cancer Nomogram Prognosis Overall survival Prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s12672-025-02732-8 |
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