Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks

Power transformers are vital in power systems, where oil temperature is a key operational indicator. This study proposes an advanced hybrid neural network model, BWO-TCN-BiGRU-Attention, to predict the top-oil temperature of transformers. The model was validated using temperature data from power tra...

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Main Authors: Jingrui Liu, Zhiwen Hou, Bowei Liu, Xinhui Zhou
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-05-01
Series:Mathematics
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/11/1785
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author Jingrui Liu
Zhiwen Hou
Bowei Liu
Xinhui Zhou
author_facet Jingrui Liu
Zhiwen Hou
Bowei Liu
Xinhui Zhou
author_sort Jingrui Liu
collection DOAJ
description Power transformers are vital in power systems, where oil temperature is a key operational indicator. This study proposes an advanced hybrid neural network model, BWO-TCN-BiGRU-Attention, to predict the top-oil temperature of transformers. The model was validated using temperature data from power transformers in two Chinese regions. It achieved MAEs of 0.5258 and 0.9995, MAPEs of 2.75% and 2.73%, and RMSEs of 0.6353 and 1.2158, significantly outperforming mainstream methods like ELM, PSO-SVR, Informer, CNN-BiLSTM-Attention, and CNN-GRU-Attention. In tests conducted in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, the model’s MAPE was 2.75%, 3.44%, 3.93%, and 2.46% for Transformer 1, and 2.73%, 2.78%, 3.07%, and 2.05% for Transformer 2, respectively. These results indicate that the model can maintain low prediction errors even with significant seasonal temperature variations. In terms of time granularity, the model performed well at both 1 h and 15 min intervals: for Transformer 1, MAPE was 2.75% at 1 h granularity and 2.98% at 15 min granularity; for Transformer 2, MAPE was 2.73% at 1 h granularity and further reduced to 2.16% at 15 min granularity. This shows that the model can adapt to different seasons and maintain good prediction performance with high-frequency data, providing reliable technical support for the safe and stable operation of power systems.
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spelling doaj-art-1f339ec732cd4ac69d1f8d044257650f2025-08-20T03:11:32ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-05-011311178510.3390/math13111785Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural NetworksJingrui Liu0Zhiwen Hou1Bowei Liu2Xinhui Zhou3Chongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaChongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaChongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaChongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaPower transformers are vital in power systems, where oil temperature is a key operational indicator. This study proposes an advanced hybrid neural network model, BWO-TCN-BiGRU-Attention, to predict the top-oil temperature of transformers. The model was validated using temperature data from power transformers in two Chinese regions. It achieved MAEs of 0.5258 and 0.9995, MAPEs of 2.75% and 2.73%, and RMSEs of 0.6353 and 1.2158, significantly outperforming mainstream methods like ELM, PSO-SVR, Informer, CNN-BiLSTM-Attention, and CNN-GRU-Attention. In tests conducted in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, the model’s MAPE was 2.75%, 3.44%, 3.93%, and 2.46% for Transformer 1, and 2.73%, 2.78%, 3.07%, and 2.05% for Transformer 2, respectively. These results indicate that the model can maintain low prediction errors even with significant seasonal temperature variations. In terms of time granularity, the model performed well at both 1 h and 15 min intervals: for Transformer 1, MAPE was 2.75% at 1 h granularity and 2.98% at 15 min granularity; for Transformer 2, MAPE was 2.73% at 1 h granularity and further reduced to 2.16% at 15 min granularity. This shows that the model can adapt to different seasons and maintain good prediction performance with high-frequency data, providing reliable technical support for the safe and stable operation of power systems.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/11/1785power transformeroil temperature predictionhybrid neural networkbeluga whale optimizationpower systemartificial intelligence
spellingShingle Jingrui Liu
Zhiwen Hou
Bowei Liu
Xinhui Zhou
Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks
Mathematics
power transformer
oil temperature prediction
hybrid neural network
beluga whale optimization
power system
artificial intelligence
title Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks
title_full Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks
title_fullStr Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks
title_short Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks
title_sort mathematical and machine learning innovations for power systems predicting transformer oil temperature with beluga whale optimization based hybrid neural networks
topic power transformer
oil temperature prediction
hybrid neural network
beluga whale optimization
power system
artificial intelligence
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/11/1785
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AT boweiliu mathematicalandmachinelearninginnovationsforpowersystemspredictingtransformeroiltemperaturewithbelugawhaleoptimizationbasedhybridneuralnetworks
AT xinhuizhou mathematicalandmachinelearninginnovationsforpowersystemspredictingtransformeroiltemperaturewithbelugawhaleoptimizationbasedhybridneuralnetworks