Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks
Power transformers are vital in power systems, where oil temperature is a key operational indicator. This study proposes an advanced hybrid neural network model, BWO-TCN-BiGRU-Attention, to predict the top-oil temperature of transformers. The model was validated using temperature data from power tra...
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MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Mathematics |
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| author | Jingrui Liu Zhiwen Hou Bowei Liu Xinhui Zhou |
| author_facet | Jingrui Liu Zhiwen Hou Bowei Liu Xinhui Zhou |
| author_sort | Jingrui Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Power transformers are vital in power systems, where oil temperature is a key operational indicator. This study proposes an advanced hybrid neural network model, BWO-TCN-BiGRU-Attention, to predict the top-oil temperature of transformers. The model was validated using temperature data from power transformers in two Chinese regions. It achieved MAEs of 0.5258 and 0.9995, MAPEs of 2.75% and 2.73%, and RMSEs of 0.6353 and 1.2158, significantly outperforming mainstream methods like ELM, PSO-SVR, Informer, CNN-BiLSTM-Attention, and CNN-GRU-Attention. In tests conducted in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, the model’s MAPE was 2.75%, 3.44%, 3.93%, and 2.46% for Transformer 1, and 2.73%, 2.78%, 3.07%, and 2.05% for Transformer 2, respectively. These results indicate that the model can maintain low prediction errors even with significant seasonal temperature variations. In terms of time granularity, the model performed well at both 1 h and 15 min intervals: for Transformer 1, MAPE was 2.75% at 1 h granularity and 2.98% at 15 min granularity; for Transformer 2, MAPE was 2.73% at 1 h granularity and further reduced to 2.16% at 15 min granularity. This shows that the model can adapt to different seasons and maintain good prediction performance with high-frequency data, providing reliable technical support for the safe and stable operation of power systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1f339ec732cd4ac69d1f8d044257650f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| spelling | doaj-art-1f339ec732cd4ac69d1f8d044257650f2025-08-20T03:11:32ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-05-011311178510.3390/math13111785Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural NetworksJingrui Liu0Zhiwen Hou1Bowei Liu2Xinhui Zhou3Chongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaChongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaChongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaChongqing University-University of Cincinnati Joint Co-op Institute, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, ChinaPower transformers are vital in power systems, where oil temperature is a key operational indicator. This study proposes an advanced hybrid neural network model, BWO-TCN-BiGRU-Attention, to predict the top-oil temperature of transformers. The model was validated using temperature data from power transformers in two Chinese regions. It achieved MAEs of 0.5258 and 0.9995, MAPEs of 2.75% and 2.73%, and RMSEs of 0.6353 and 1.2158, significantly outperforming mainstream methods like ELM, PSO-SVR, Informer, CNN-BiLSTM-Attention, and CNN-GRU-Attention. In tests conducted in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, the model’s MAPE was 2.75%, 3.44%, 3.93%, and 2.46% for Transformer 1, and 2.73%, 2.78%, 3.07%, and 2.05% for Transformer 2, respectively. These results indicate that the model can maintain low prediction errors even with significant seasonal temperature variations. In terms of time granularity, the model performed well at both 1 h and 15 min intervals: for Transformer 1, MAPE was 2.75% at 1 h granularity and 2.98% at 15 min granularity; for Transformer 2, MAPE was 2.73% at 1 h granularity and further reduced to 2.16% at 15 min granularity. This shows that the model can adapt to different seasons and maintain good prediction performance with high-frequency data, providing reliable technical support for the safe and stable operation of power systems.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/11/1785power transformeroil temperature predictionhybrid neural networkbeluga whale optimizationpower systemartificial intelligence |
| spellingShingle | Jingrui Liu Zhiwen Hou Bowei Liu Xinhui Zhou Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks Mathematics power transformer oil temperature prediction hybrid neural network beluga whale optimization power system artificial intelligence |
| title | Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks |
| title_full | Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks |
| title_short | Mathematical and Machine Learning Innovations for Power Systems: Predicting Transformer Oil Temperature with Beluga Whale Optimization-Based Hybrid Neural Networks |
| title_sort | mathematical and machine learning innovations for power systems predicting transformer oil temperature with beluga whale optimization based hybrid neural networks |
| topic | power transformer oil temperature prediction hybrid neural network beluga whale optimization power system artificial intelligence |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/11/1785 |
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