Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?
Abstract Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme E...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-07-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107848 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849716804017979392 |
|---|---|
| author | Tobias Bayr Joke F. Lübbecke Stephanie Fiedler |
| author_facet | Tobias Bayr Joke F. Lübbecke Stephanie Fiedler |
| author_sort | Tobias Bayr |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1eb80ddeea164c32abf23d54cffb0452 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-1eb80ddeea164c32abf23d54cffb04522025-08-20T03:12:51ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-07-015113n/an/a10.1029/2023GL107848Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?Tobias Bayr0Joke F. Lübbecke1Stephanie Fiedler2Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology University of Cologne Cologne GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel Kiel GermanyInstitute of Geophysics and Meteorology University of Cologne Cologne GermanyAbstract Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107848ENSOEl Nino‐Southern Oscillationtipping elementglobal warmingextreme eastern Pacific El Nino events |
| spellingShingle | Tobias Bayr Joke F. Lübbecke Stephanie Fiedler Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System? Geophysical Research Letters ENSO El Nino‐Southern Oscillation tipping element global warming extreme eastern Pacific El Nino events |
| title | Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System? |
| title_full | Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System? |
| title_fullStr | Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System? |
| title_short | Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System? |
| title_sort | is el nino southern oscillation a tipping element in the climate system |
| topic | ENSO El Nino‐Southern Oscillation tipping element global warming extreme eastern Pacific El Nino events |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107848 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT tobiasbayr iselninosouthernoscillationatippingelementintheclimatesystem AT jokeflubbecke iselninosouthernoscillationatippingelementintheclimatesystem AT stephaniefiedler iselninosouthernoscillationatippingelementintheclimatesystem |