Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangas
Species extinction rates have surpassed background rates in the contemporary times, triggering a sixth global mass extinction event. Failure to prevent massive extinctions may be related to the lack of efficient tools to estimate local and regional population decline and to identify where declining...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001062 |
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| author | Rafael de Fraga Luiz Gustavo Rodrigues Oliveira Santos Valeria da Cunha Tavares Leonardo Carreira Trevelin Maurício Takashi Coutinho Watanabe Leandro Maioli Samir Rolim Carolina da Silva Carvalho |
| author_facet | Rafael de Fraga Luiz Gustavo Rodrigues Oliveira Santos Valeria da Cunha Tavares Leonardo Carreira Trevelin Maurício Takashi Coutinho Watanabe Leandro Maioli Samir Rolim Carolina da Silva Carvalho |
| author_sort | Rafael de Fraga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Species extinction rates have surpassed background rates in the contemporary times, triggering a sixth global mass extinction event. Failure to prevent massive extinctions may be related to the lack of efficient tools to estimate local and regional population decline and to identify where declining species likely occur. We used a set of 22 plant species distributed in a globally unique ecosystem, the eastern Amazonian mosaics of forests, iron-rich open “cangas” and iron mine lands, as a model to test whether dynamic multispecies occupancy models can be used to assess population decline. Based on the metapopulation equilibrium between colonization and extinction probabilities compared across 90 mining plots and 60 control plots, we estimate that 45.4 % of the sampled species show no evidence of population decline. For 18.2 % of the species, we found negative equilibrium for both mining and control plots. For 36.4 % of the species, we found negative equilibrium only in 2.22–23.3 % of the mining plots, although equilibrium values were similar to those estimated for most control plots. Negative equilibrium was more associated with the reduced colonization probabilities than with elevated extinction probabilities. Our results indicate that for some wide-ranging species, negative metapopulation equilibrium was restricted to mining plots, indicating sensitivity of these species to environmental changes caused by mining. For some endemic species, apparent population declines are more likely to be occurring due to natural causes than to the negative effects of mining. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1e99ae5aec764c02831768f5cc8a418f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-1e99ae5aec764c02831768f5cc8a418f2025-02-11T04:33:39ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-02-01171113177Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangasRafael de Fraga0Luiz Gustavo Rodrigues Oliveira Santos1Valeria da Cunha Tavares2Leonardo Carreira Trevelin3Maurício Takashi Coutinho Watanabe4Leandro Maioli5Samir Rolim6Carolina da Silva Carvalho7Instituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, Brazil; Corresponding author.Ecology Department, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, BrazilInstituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, Brazil; Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém, Pará, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia (Zoologia), Universidade Federal da Paraíba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, BrazilInstituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, Brazil; Co-corresponding author.Instituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, BrazilAmbipar Response Environmental Services LTDA, BrazilAmplo Engenharia e Gestão de Projetos LTDA, BrazilInstituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, BrazilSpecies extinction rates have surpassed background rates in the contemporary times, triggering a sixth global mass extinction event. Failure to prevent massive extinctions may be related to the lack of efficient tools to estimate local and regional population decline and to identify where declining species likely occur. We used a set of 22 plant species distributed in a globally unique ecosystem, the eastern Amazonian mosaics of forests, iron-rich open “cangas” and iron mine lands, as a model to test whether dynamic multispecies occupancy models can be used to assess population decline. Based on the metapopulation equilibrium between colonization and extinction probabilities compared across 90 mining plots and 60 control plots, we estimate that 45.4 % of the sampled species show no evidence of population decline. For 18.2 % of the species, we found negative equilibrium for both mining and control plots. For 36.4 % of the species, we found negative equilibrium only in 2.22–23.3 % of the mining plots, although equilibrium values were similar to those estimated for most control plots. Negative equilibrium was more associated with the reduced colonization probabilities than with elevated extinction probabilities. Our results indicate that for some wide-ranging species, negative metapopulation equilibrium was restricted to mining plots, indicating sensitivity of these species to environmental changes caused by mining. For some endemic species, apparent population declines are more likely to be occurring due to natural causes than to the negative effects of mining.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001062Amazonian savannaCangaCarajásColonizationMiningMitigation hierarchy |
| spellingShingle | Rafael de Fraga Luiz Gustavo Rodrigues Oliveira Santos Valeria da Cunha Tavares Leonardo Carreira Trevelin Maurício Takashi Coutinho Watanabe Leandro Maioli Samir Rolim Carolina da Silva Carvalho Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangas Ecological Indicators Amazonian savanna Canga Carajás Colonization Mining Mitigation hierarchy |
| title | Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangas |
| title_full | Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangas |
| title_fullStr | Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangas |
| title_short | Multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique Amazonian cangas |
| title_sort | multispecies occupancy models unravel reduced colonization probabilities in plants from the unique amazonian cangas |
| topic | Amazonian savanna Canga Carajás Colonization Mining Mitigation hierarchy |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001062 |
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