Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics
The COVID-19 vaccine has been available in India since January 2021, although many individuals have refused to take the vaccine for various reasons. Vaccination plays a crucial role in disease control by preventing a substantial number of cases and associated disabilities. However, vaccine hesitancy...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
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| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.240833 |
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| author | Komal Tanwar Nitesh Kumawat Jai Prakash Tripathi Sudipa Chauhan Anuj Mubayi |
| author_facet | Komal Tanwar Nitesh Kumawat Jai Prakash Tripathi Sudipa Chauhan Anuj Mubayi |
| author_sort | Komal Tanwar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 vaccine has been available in India since January 2021, although many individuals have refused to take the vaccine for various reasons. Vaccination plays a crucial role in disease control by preventing a substantial number of cases and associated disabilities. However, vaccine hesitancy poses a barrier that hinders these efforts. Our article presents a novel approach by proposing a mathematical model for COVID-19 that incorporates vaccine hesitancy, vaccine efficacy and behaviour compensation post-vaccination. The model is calibrated with COVID-19 incidence data for India from 13 February 2021 to 12 January 2022, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The analysis examines the effects of hesitancy and social interventions through a series of practical simulations. The simulation results show that while COVID-19-infected individuals may have natural immunity, vaccination post-recovery is crucial to reduce cases by up to 64.1%. Social interventions, such as face masks and distancing, remain essential to prevent a rise in cases and ensure effective disease control. The model demonstrates that vaccination, combined with continued social interventions, is crucial for effectively reducing COVID-19 cases and preventing future outbreaks. Addressing vaccine hesitancy and maintaining preventive measures are key to successfully controlling the pandemic. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1e5f2edd5e684ce18b3db644a41cde16 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-1e5f2edd5e684ce18b3db644a41cde162024-11-13T15:33:43ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032024-11-01111110.1098/rsos.240833Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamicsKomal Tanwar0Nitesh Kumawat1Jai Prakash Tripathi2Sudipa Chauhan3Anuj Mubayi4Department of Mathematics, Central University of Rajasthan, Bandar Sindri, Kishangarh 305817, Ajmer, Rajasthan, IndiaDepartment of Mathematics, Central University of Rajasthan, Bandar Sindri, Kishangarh 305817, Ajmer, Rajasthan, IndiaDepartment of Mathematics, Central University of Rajasthan, Bandar Sindri, Kishangarh 305817, Ajmer, Rajasthan, IndiaModelling & Simulation, Health Economics and Market Access, Evidera, Ottawa, CanadaIntercollegiate Biomathematics Alliance, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, USAThe COVID-19 vaccine has been available in India since January 2021, although many individuals have refused to take the vaccine for various reasons. Vaccination plays a crucial role in disease control by preventing a substantial number of cases and associated disabilities. However, vaccine hesitancy poses a barrier that hinders these efforts. Our article presents a novel approach by proposing a mathematical model for COVID-19 that incorporates vaccine hesitancy, vaccine efficacy and behaviour compensation post-vaccination. The model is calibrated with COVID-19 incidence data for India from 13 February 2021 to 12 January 2022, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The analysis examines the effects of hesitancy and social interventions through a series of practical simulations. The simulation results show that while COVID-19-infected individuals may have natural immunity, vaccination post-recovery is crucial to reduce cases by up to 64.1%. Social interventions, such as face masks and distancing, remain essential to prevent a rise in cases and ensure effective disease control. The model demonstrates that vaccination, combined with continued social interventions, is crucial for effectively reducing COVID-19 cases and preventing future outbreaks. Addressing vaccine hesitancy and maintaining preventive measures are key to successfully controlling the pandemic.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.240833COVID-19vaccine hesitancyvaccine efficacysocial interventionsbehaviour compensation |
| spellingShingle | Komal Tanwar Nitesh Kumawat Jai Prakash Tripathi Sudipa Chauhan Anuj Mubayi Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics Royal Society Open Science COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy vaccine efficacy social interventions behaviour compensation |
| title | Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics |
| title_full | Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics |
| title_short | Evaluating vaccination timing, hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks: insights from COVID-19 modelling and transmission dynamics |
| title_sort | evaluating vaccination timing hesitancy and effectiveness to prevent future outbreaks insights from covid 19 modelling and transmission dynamics |
| topic | COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy vaccine efficacy social interventions behaviour compensation |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.240833 |
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