Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive Play
Introduction: Football analysis has experienced significant growth in recent years as an applied research field. This study aims to contribute to this area by applying the chain on goals model to analyze both the attacking and defensive phases of football matches. Additionally, it introduces four pr...
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MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| author | Blanca De-la-Cruz-Torres Miguel Navarro-Castro Anselmo Ruiz-de-Alarcón-Quintero |
| author_facet | Blanca De-la-Cruz-Torres Miguel Navarro-Castro Anselmo Ruiz-de-Alarcón-Quintero |
| author_sort | Blanca De-la-Cruz-Torres |
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| description | Introduction: Football analysis has experienced significant growth in recent years as an applied research field. This study aims to contribute to this area by applying the chain on goals model to analyze both the attacking and defensive phases of football matches. Additionally, it introduces four practical concepts to better understand player and team performance in Spain’s professional football leagues. Method: Data for the 2023/24 season were collected from Football Reference, covering both men’s (LaLiga) and women’s (LigaF) leagues. Variables analyzed included team performance, attack and defensive performance, goals saved above average (GSAA), goals and possession value (PV), expected goals (xG), and xG on target (xGOT) for attack and defensive phases. Four practical concepts analyzed were off-ball movement (PV-xG), player’s offensive quality (xG-xGOT), team’s positioning (PVA-xGA), and player’s defensive quality (xGA-xGOTA). Descriptive and comparative statistical analyses were performed to compare all variables between the two leagues using an Independent Student’s test. Additionally, correlation coefficients were calculated to examine the relationships between the four concepts. Results: Significant differences were observed between leagues in defensive performance (<i>p</i> = 0.03) and GSAA (<i>p</i> < 0.001). Practical concepts revealed disparities in off-ball movement and team’s positioning (<i>p</i> < 0.001 in both). No correlations were found between off-ball movement and player’s offensive quality or between team’s positioning and player’s defensive quality. Conclusions: The Spanish women’s league exhibited defensive weaknesses, conceding more goals and showing lower goalkeeper performance. PV was the most influential variable in the women’s league, while xG was critical in the men’s league. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-1e3fa0922edb4936bbd1e2a823edfce92025-01-24T13:21:37ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-01-0115299810.3390/app15020998Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive PlayBlanca De-la-Cruz-Torres0Miguel Navarro-Castro1Anselmo Ruiz-de-Alarcón-Quintero2Department of Physiotherapy, University of Seville, c/Avicena s/n, 41009 Seville, SpainDepartment of Applied Mathematics I, E.T.S. of Architecture, University of Seville, Avd. Reina Mercedes s/n, 41012 Seville, SpainFootball and Handball Academy, Street n° 12B, office 6, 41960 Seville, SpainIntroduction: Football analysis has experienced significant growth in recent years as an applied research field. This study aims to contribute to this area by applying the chain on goals model to analyze both the attacking and defensive phases of football matches. Additionally, it introduces four practical concepts to better understand player and team performance in Spain’s professional football leagues. Method: Data for the 2023/24 season were collected from Football Reference, covering both men’s (LaLiga) and women’s (LigaF) leagues. Variables analyzed included team performance, attack and defensive performance, goals saved above average (GSAA), goals and possession value (PV), expected goals (xG), and xG on target (xGOT) for attack and defensive phases. Four practical concepts analyzed were off-ball movement (PV-xG), player’s offensive quality (xG-xGOT), team’s positioning (PVA-xGA), and player’s defensive quality (xGA-xGOTA). Descriptive and comparative statistical analyses were performed to compare all variables between the two leagues using an Independent Student’s test. Additionally, correlation coefficients were calculated to examine the relationships between the four concepts. Results: Significant differences were observed between leagues in defensive performance (<i>p</i> = 0.03) and GSAA (<i>p</i> < 0.001). Practical concepts revealed disparities in off-ball movement and team’s positioning (<i>p</i> < 0.001 in both). No correlations were found between off-ball movement and player’s offensive quality or between team’s positioning and player’s defensive quality. Conclusions: The Spanish women’s league exhibited defensive weaknesses, conceding more goals and showing lower goalkeeper performance. PV was the most influential variable in the women’s league, while xG was critical in the men’s league.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/2/998data analysisfootballexpected goals on targetperformance indicators |
| spellingShingle | Blanca De-la-Cruz-Torres Miguel Navarro-Castro Anselmo Ruiz-de-Alarcón-Quintero Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive Play Applied Sciences data analysis football expected goals on target performance indicators |
| title | Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive Play |
| title_full | Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive Play |
| title_fullStr | Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive Play |
| title_full_unstemmed | Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive Play |
| title_short | Leveraging the Chain on Goals Model in Football: Applications for Attack and Defensive Play |
| title_sort | leveraging the chain on goals model in football applications for attack and defensive play |
| topic | data analysis football expected goals on target performance indicators |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/2/998 |
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