Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
Abstract Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z |
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| author | Hye-Ryeom Kim Kyung-Ja Ha Mathew Koll Roxy Eui-Seok Chung Bin Wang Sun-Seon Lee Ja-Yeon Moon |
| author_facet | Hye-Ryeom Kim Kyung-Ja Ha Mathew Koll Roxy Eui-Seok Chung Bin Wang Sun-Seon Lee Ja-Yeon Moon |
| author_sort | Hye-Ryeom Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparing two periods: 1979–1998 and 2003–2022. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, we show that propagation accelerated over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent but slowed over the western Pacific in the later period. These contrasting responses are linked to changes in sea surface temperature patterns and associated atmospheric conditions. Over the Indian Ocean, enhanced low-level horizontal moisture gradients and increased upper-tropospheric stability facilitate propagation, while weakened moisture gradient and suppressed convection hinder it over the western Pacific. Despite complex terrain and atmospheric interactions over the Maritime Continent, background changes still favor enhanced propagation. These findings highlight the sensitivity of Madden-Julian Oscillation behavior to regional ocean–atmospheric conditions, with implications for improving subseasonal prediction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1d5ecba0a8954cf2a5aecba47b6c2a5c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-1d5ecba0a8954cf2a5aecba47b6c2a5c2025-08-20T03:46:20ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-08-016111010.1038/s43247-025-02652-zRecent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian OscillationHye-Ryeom Kim0Kyung-Ja Ha1Mathew Koll Roxy2Eui-Seok Chung3Bin Wang4Sun-Seon Lee5Ja-Yeon Moon6BK21 School of Earth and Environmental Systems, Pusan National UniversityBK21 School of Earth and Environmental Systems, Pusan National UniversityCentre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyDivision of Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, Korea Polar Research InstituteDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at ManoaCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceAbstract Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparing two periods: 1979–1998 and 2003–2022. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, we show that propagation accelerated over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent but slowed over the western Pacific in the later period. These contrasting responses are linked to changes in sea surface temperature patterns and associated atmospheric conditions. Over the Indian Ocean, enhanced low-level horizontal moisture gradients and increased upper-tropospheric stability facilitate propagation, while weakened moisture gradient and suppressed convection hinder it over the western Pacific. Despite complex terrain and atmospheric interactions over the Maritime Continent, background changes still favor enhanced propagation. These findings highlight the sensitivity of Madden-Julian Oscillation behavior to regional ocean–atmospheric conditions, with implications for improving subseasonal prediction.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z |
| spellingShingle | Hye-Ryeom Kim Kyung-Ja Ha Mathew Koll Roxy Eui-Seok Chung Bin Wang Sun-Seon Lee Ja-Yeon Moon Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation |
| title_full | Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation |
| title_fullStr | Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation |
| title_short | Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation |
| title_sort | recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of madden julian oscillation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z |
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