Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation

Abstract Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparin...

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Main Authors: Hye-Ryeom Kim, Kyung-Ja Ha, Mathew Koll Roxy, Eui-Seok Chung, Bin Wang, Sun-Seon Lee, Ja-Yeon Moon
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-08-01
Series:Communications Earth & Environment
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z
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author Hye-Ryeom Kim
Kyung-Ja Ha
Mathew Koll Roxy
Eui-Seok Chung
Bin Wang
Sun-Seon Lee
Ja-Yeon Moon
author_facet Hye-Ryeom Kim
Kyung-Ja Ha
Mathew Koll Roxy
Eui-Seok Chung
Bin Wang
Sun-Seon Lee
Ja-Yeon Moon
author_sort Hye-Ryeom Kim
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparing two periods: 1979–1998 and 2003–2022. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, we show that propagation accelerated over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent but slowed over the western Pacific in the later period. These contrasting responses are linked to changes in sea surface temperature patterns and associated atmospheric conditions. Over the Indian Ocean, enhanced low-level horizontal moisture gradients and increased upper-tropospheric stability facilitate propagation, while weakened moisture gradient and suppressed convection hinder it over the western Pacific. Despite complex terrain and atmospheric interactions over the Maritime Continent, background changes still favor enhanced propagation. These findings highlight the sensitivity of Madden-Julian Oscillation behavior to regional ocean–atmospheric conditions, with implications for improving subseasonal prediction.
format Article
id doaj-art-1d5ecba0a8954cf2a5aecba47b6c2a5c
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issn 2662-4435
language English
publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
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series Communications Earth & Environment
spelling doaj-art-1d5ecba0a8954cf2a5aecba47b6c2a5c2025-08-20T03:46:20ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-08-016111010.1038/s43247-025-02652-zRecent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian OscillationHye-Ryeom Kim0Kyung-Ja Ha1Mathew Koll Roxy2Eui-Seok Chung3Bin Wang4Sun-Seon Lee5Ja-Yeon Moon6BK21 School of Earth and Environmental Systems, Pusan National UniversityBK21 School of Earth and Environmental Systems, Pusan National UniversityCentre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyDivision of Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, Korea Polar Research InstituteDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at ManoaCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceAbstract Tropical sea surface temperature warming displays distinct regional patterns, but its influence on Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation remains unclear. Here we investigate how a shift toward La Niña-like conditions around 1999 has affected Madden-Julian Oscillation propagation by comparing two periods: 1979–1998 and 2003–2022. Using satellite observations and reanalysis data, we show that propagation accelerated over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent but slowed over the western Pacific in the later period. These contrasting responses are linked to changes in sea surface temperature patterns and associated atmospheric conditions. Over the Indian Ocean, enhanced low-level horizontal moisture gradients and increased upper-tropospheric stability facilitate propagation, while weakened moisture gradient and suppressed convection hinder it over the western Pacific. Despite complex terrain and atmospheric interactions over the Maritime Continent, background changes still favor enhanced propagation. These findings highlight the sensitivity of Madden-Julian Oscillation behavior to regional ocean–atmospheric conditions, with implications for improving subseasonal prediction.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z
spellingShingle Hye-Ryeom Kim
Kyung-Ja Ha
Mathew Koll Roxy
Eui-Seok Chung
Bin Wang
Sun-Seon Lee
Ja-Yeon Moon
Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
Communications Earth & Environment
title Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
title_full Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
title_fullStr Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
title_full_unstemmed Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
title_short Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation
title_sort recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of madden julian oscillation
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02652-z
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