The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in context
Summary: Background: The demand for informal care in Europe is increasing, with family members often providing essential support. However, the future burden of informal family caregiving remains unclear. This study estimates and projects trends in the burden of family caregiving across 31 European...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Regional Health. Europe |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776225000870 |
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| author | Andrea Cattaneo Andrea Vitali Daniele Regazzoni Caterina Rizzi |
| author_facet | Andrea Cattaneo Andrea Vitali Daniele Regazzoni Caterina Rizzi |
| author_sort | Andrea Cattaneo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: The demand for informal care in Europe is increasing, with family members often providing essential support. However, the future burden of informal family caregiving remains unclear. This study estimates and projects trends in the burden of family caregiving across 31 European countries from 2000 to 2050. Methods: We developed a demographic microsimulation model to estimate and project family care burden. The model produces virtual populations with realistic kinship networks and health trajectories over time. From these kinship structures, we defined a novel metric – Years Lived Caregiving for older relatives (YLCs). It accounts for care recipients’ disability severity, care dynamics within kinship networks, and national institutional care capacity. Model inputs included demographic data from UN World Population Prospects, marital statistics from Eurostat, disease prevalence from the Global Burden of Disease study, and microdata from the SHARE survey. Findings: From 2000 to 2050, in Europe the overall burden for informal care is projected to increase by +49.7% (95% UI 45–53.6), from 7.98 (7.65–8.28) to 11.9 (11.4–12.5) million YLC. Musculoskeletal disorders are the largest cause of care burden, contributing to 2.3 (2.18–2.42) million YLC in 2050. Burden of informal care is disproportionally higher for women, although the gender gap is in a descending trend. Interpretation: Projections indicate a substantial rise in the informal family care burden across Europe by 2050, with only limited offsetting from institutional care. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to support both caregivers and care recipients, ensuring sustainable healthcare systems across Europe. Funding: Italian government and the European Union, National Plan for NRRP Complementary Investments (PNC). |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1cc7ce0e486f474988c4e18423e4daf6 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2666-7762 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Regional Health. Europe |
| spelling | doaj-art-1cc7ce0e486f474988c4e18423e4daf62025-08-20T02:16:29ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Europe2666-77622025-06-015310129510.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101295The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in contextAndrea Cattaneo0Andrea Vitali1Daniele Regazzoni2Caterina Rizzi3Corresponding author. Department of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Via Galvani, 2, Dalmine, Bergamo, Italy.; Department of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, ItalyDepartment of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, ItalyDepartment of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, ItalyDepartment of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, ItalySummary: Background: The demand for informal care in Europe is increasing, with family members often providing essential support. However, the future burden of informal family caregiving remains unclear. This study estimates and projects trends in the burden of family caregiving across 31 European countries from 2000 to 2050. Methods: We developed a demographic microsimulation model to estimate and project family care burden. The model produces virtual populations with realistic kinship networks and health trajectories over time. From these kinship structures, we defined a novel metric – Years Lived Caregiving for older relatives (YLCs). It accounts for care recipients’ disability severity, care dynamics within kinship networks, and national institutional care capacity. Model inputs included demographic data from UN World Population Prospects, marital statistics from Eurostat, disease prevalence from the Global Burden of Disease study, and microdata from the SHARE survey. Findings: From 2000 to 2050, in Europe the overall burden for informal care is projected to increase by +49.7% (95% UI 45–53.6), from 7.98 (7.65–8.28) to 11.9 (11.4–12.5) million YLC. Musculoskeletal disorders are the largest cause of care burden, contributing to 2.3 (2.18–2.42) million YLC in 2050. Burden of informal care is disproportionally higher for women, although the gender gap is in a descending trend. Interpretation: Projections indicate a substantial rise in the informal family care burden across Europe by 2050, with only limited offsetting from institutional care. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to support both caregivers and care recipients, ensuring sustainable healthcare systems across Europe. Funding: Italian government and the European Union, National Plan for NRRP Complementary Investments (PNC).http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776225000870Informal caregiversPopulation ageingLong-term careCaregiver burdenComputational modelling |
| spellingShingle | Andrea Cattaneo Andrea Vitali Daniele Regazzoni Caterina Rizzi The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in context The Lancet Regional Health. Europe Informal caregivers Population ageing Long-term care Caregiver burden Computational modelling |
| title | The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_full | The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_short | The burden of informal family caregiving in Europe, 2000–2050: a microsimulation modelling studyResearch in context |
| title_sort | burden of informal family caregiving in europe 2000 2050 a microsimulation modelling studyresearch in context |
| topic | Informal caregivers Population ageing Long-term care Caregiver burden Computational modelling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776225000870 |
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