A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)

The problem faced in the implementation of Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) is the high dropout rate (DO) reaching 90% which exceeds the formal school dropout rate. Preventive action needs to be taken to minimize the impact on MOOCs, instructors, and students. One solution is to do machine learning...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Muhammad Ricky Perdana Putra, Ema Utami
Format: Article
Language:Indonesian
Published: Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto 2025-03-01
Series:Jurnal Informatika
Subjects:
Online Access:http://jurnalnasional.ump.ac.id/index.php/JUITA/article/view/24061
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849243646104174592
author Muhammad Ricky Perdana Putra
Ema Utami
author_facet Muhammad Ricky Perdana Putra
Ema Utami
author_sort Muhammad Ricky Perdana Putra
collection DOAJ
description The problem faced in the implementation of Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) is the high dropout rate (DO) reaching 90% which exceeds the formal school dropout rate. Preventive action needs to be taken to minimize the impact on MOOCs, instructors, and students. One solution is to do machine learning (ML) based prediction. The use of ML does not escape the problem of prediction performance that is still less accurate so it needs to be improved by blending ensemble learning (BEL). This research builds a BEL model consisting of two layers including base model with KNN, Decision Tree, and Naïve Bayes algorithms, then meta model with XGBoost. The dataset from KDD Cup 2015 contains clickstream from XuetangX website. The pre-processing stage includes selecting the course with the most participants, normalization, SMOTE, feature selection, and breaking it into three: ensemble, blender, and test data. The BEL model evaluation results obtained an accuracy value of 90.16%, precision of 85.64%, recall of 97.31%, F1-Score of 91.10%, and AUC of 92.83%.
format Article
id doaj-art-1c088a08e95642dc9530451953630b4b
institution Kabale University
issn 2086-9398
2579-8901
language Indonesian
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto
record_format Article
series Jurnal Informatika
spelling doaj-art-1c088a08e95642dc9530451953630b4b2025-08-20T03:59:25ZindUniversitas Muhammadiyah PurwokertoJurnal Informatika2086-93982579-89012025-03-01111810.30595/juita.v13i1.2406119431A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)Muhammad Ricky Perdana Putra0Ema Utami1Universitas Amikom YogyakartaUniversitas Amikom YogyakartaThe problem faced in the implementation of Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) is the high dropout rate (DO) reaching 90% which exceeds the formal school dropout rate. Preventive action needs to be taken to minimize the impact on MOOCs, instructors, and students. One solution is to do machine learning (ML) based prediction. The use of ML does not escape the problem of prediction performance that is still less accurate so it needs to be improved by blending ensemble learning (BEL). This research builds a BEL model consisting of two layers including base model with KNN, Decision Tree, and Naïve Bayes algorithms, then meta model with XGBoost. The dataset from KDD Cup 2015 contains clickstream from XuetangX website. The pre-processing stage includes selecting the course with the most participants, normalization, SMOTE, feature selection, and breaking it into three: ensemble, blender, and test data. The BEL model evaluation results obtained an accuracy value of 90.16%, precision of 85.64%, recall of 97.31%, F1-Score of 91.10%, and AUC of 92.83%.http://jurnalnasional.ump.ac.id/index.php/JUITA/article/view/24061blending ensemble learningmoocpredictiondropoutsmote.
spellingShingle Muhammad Ricky Perdana Putra
Ema Utami
A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)
Jurnal Informatika
blending ensemble learning
mooc
prediction
dropout
smote.
title A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)
title_full A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)
title_fullStr A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)
title_full_unstemmed A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)
title_short A Blending Ensemble Approach to Predicting Student Dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)
title_sort blending ensemble approach to predicting student dropout in massive open online courses moocs
topic blending ensemble learning
mooc
prediction
dropout
smote.
url http://jurnalnasional.ump.ac.id/index.php/JUITA/article/view/24061
work_keys_str_mv AT muhammadrickyperdanaputra ablendingensembleapproachtopredictingstudentdropoutinmassiveopenonlinecoursesmoocs
AT emautami ablendingensembleapproachtopredictingstudentdropoutinmassiveopenonlinecoursesmoocs
AT muhammadrickyperdanaputra blendingensembleapproachtopredictingstudentdropoutinmassiveopenonlinecoursesmoocs
AT emautami blendingensembleapproachtopredictingstudentdropoutinmassiveopenonlinecoursesmoocs