Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages
HIV transmission process involves a long incubation and infectionperiod, and the transmission rate varies greatly with infection stage. Conse-quently, modeling analysis based on the assumption of a constant transmissionrate during the entire infection period yields an inaccurate description of HIVtr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2008-02-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2008.5.403 |
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| author | Yicang Zhou Yiming Shao Yuhua Ruan Jianqing Xu Zhien Ma Changlin Mei Jianhong Wu |
| author_facet | Yicang Zhou Yiming Shao Yuhua Ruan Jianqing Xu Zhien Ma Changlin Mei Jianhong Wu |
| author_sort | Yicang Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | HIV transmission process involves a long incubation and infectionperiod, and the transmission rate varies greatly with infection stage. Conse-quently, modeling analysis based on the assumption of a constant transmissionrate during the entire infection period yields an inaccurate description of HIVtransmission dynamics and long-term projections. Here we develop a generalframework of mathematical modeling that takes into account this heterogeneityof transmission rate and permits rigorous estimation of important parametersusing a regression analysis of the twenty-year reported HIV infection data inChina. Despite the large variation in this statistical data attributable to theknowledge of HIV, surveillance efforts, and uncertain events, and although thereported data counts individuals who might have been infected many yearsago, our analysis shows that the model structured on infection age can assistus in extracting from this data set very useful information about transmissiontrends and about effectiveness of various control measures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1bfde595568b42ca9d95718ca309de67 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2008-02-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-1bfde595568b42ca9d95718ca309de672025-01-24T01:58:11ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182008-02-015240341810.3934/mbe.2008.5.403Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection agesYicang Zhou0Yiming Shao1Yuhua Ruan2Jianqing Xu3Zhien Ma4Changlin Mei5Jianhong Wu6Department of Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049Department of Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049Department of Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049Department of Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049Department of Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049Department of Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049Department of Mathematics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049HIV transmission process involves a long incubation and infectionperiod, and the transmission rate varies greatly with infection stage. Conse-quently, modeling analysis based on the assumption of a constant transmissionrate during the entire infection period yields an inaccurate description of HIVtransmission dynamics and long-term projections. Here we develop a generalframework of mathematical modeling that takes into account this heterogeneityof transmission rate and permits rigorous estimation of important parametersusing a regression analysis of the twenty-year reported HIV infection data inChina. Despite the large variation in this statistical data attributable to theknowledge of HIV, surveillance efforts, and uncertain events, and although thereported data counts individuals who might have been infected many yearsago, our analysis shows that the model structured on infection age can assistus in extracting from this data set very useful information about transmissiontrends and about effectiveness of various control measures.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2008.5.403compartmentalmodelsstability.hiv/aidsinfection age |
| spellingShingle | Yicang Zhou Yiming Shao Yuhua Ruan Jianqing Xu Zhien Ma Changlin Mei Jianhong Wu Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering compartmentalmodels stability. hiv/aids infection age |
| title | Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages |
| title_full | Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages |
| title_short | Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection ages |
| title_sort | modeling and prediction of hiv in china transmission rates structured by infection ages |
| topic | compartmentalmodels stability. hiv/aids infection age |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2008.5.403 |
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