Order allocation to resilient suppliers in the presence of disruption risks

Resilient supplier selection and optimal order allocation have become increasingly critical due to the rising risk of disruptions in procurement. This study proposes a novel two-stage approach that combines a Bow-Tie-based risk assessment method with a mathematical optimization model to address this...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Rifat Ozdemir, Ilkan Sarigol, Ufuk Kula, Suat Kasap
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2025-07-01
Series:International Journal of Engineering Business Management
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/18479790251359385
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Summary:Resilient supplier selection and optimal order allocation have become increasingly critical due to the rising risk of disruptions in procurement. This study proposes a novel two-stage approach that combines a Bow-Tie-based risk assessment method with a mathematical optimization model to address this challenge. In the first stage, a Bow-Tie diagram is used to evaluate disruption risks and quantify supplier resilience by analyzing their ability to absorb, adapt to, and recover from adverse events. To our knowledge, this is the first application of the Bow-Tie model in the context of supply chain disruptions. In the second stage, the resilience scores derived from the Bow-Tie analysis are integrated into a bi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model that allocates orders to suppliers based on both cost efficiency and resilience performance while accounting for product substitution and delayed fulfillment under disruption scenarios. The proposed methodology is applied to a vaccine procurement supply chain, and the results provide actionable insights for decision-makers seeking to balance cost and resilience in supplier selection.
ISSN:1847-9790