Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–Shafer

Considering the complexity of the metro pit construction environment, the existing risk early-warning methods cannot ensure high-precision early warning. A high-accuracy metro pit collapse risk fusion early-warning method is proposed in present study. The main contributions include (1) presenting a...

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Main Authors: Jiajia Zeng, Bo Wu, Cong Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Applied Sciences
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7571
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author Jiajia Zeng
Bo Wu
Cong Liu
author_facet Jiajia Zeng
Bo Wu
Cong Liu
author_sort Jiajia Zeng
collection DOAJ
description Considering the complexity of the metro pit construction environment, the existing risk early-warning methods cannot ensure high-precision early warning. A high-accuracy metro pit collapse risk fusion early-warning method is proposed in present study. The main contributions include (1) presenting a new input to the fusion model by optimizing the machine learning model through a multi-step rolling method, and then using the basic probability assignment values obtained from the cloud model as input to the fusion model and (2) developing an improved methodology to address the paradoxical results of the fusion of traditional Dempster–Shafer evidence theory when there is a high level of conflict in multi-source risk prediction data. The proposed method is successfully applied to the Guangzhou Metro station project. By analyzing the early-warning results of 240 moments in 6 monitoring points, compared with the single information source method and the traditional D-S method, the early-warning accuracy of this method is increased by 15.8% and 10.8% respectively, the false alarm rate is reduced by 6.3% and 5.5%, respectively, and the missed alarm rate is reduced by 9.5% and 5.3%, respectively. The high-accuracy fusion early-warning method proposed in this paper has good universality and effectiveness in the early warning of subway foundation pit collapse risk.
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spelling doaj-art-1bcb9d4e3ddb40868a1c421edfd6b8d32025-08-20T03:16:41ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-07-011513757110.3390/app15137571Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–ShaferJiajia Zeng0Bo Wu1Cong Liu2School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, ChinaSchool of Civil and Architecture Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, ChinaSchool of Civil and Architecture Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, ChinaConsidering the complexity of the metro pit construction environment, the existing risk early-warning methods cannot ensure high-precision early warning. A high-accuracy metro pit collapse risk fusion early-warning method is proposed in present study. The main contributions include (1) presenting a new input to the fusion model by optimizing the machine learning model through a multi-step rolling method, and then using the basic probability assignment values obtained from the cloud model as input to the fusion model and (2) developing an improved methodology to address the paradoxical results of the fusion of traditional Dempster–Shafer evidence theory when there is a high level of conflict in multi-source risk prediction data. The proposed method is successfully applied to the Guangzhou Metro station project. By analyzing the early-warning results of 240 moments in 6 monitoring points, compared with the single information source method and the traditional D-S method, the early-warning accuracy of this method is increased by 15.8% and 10.8% respectively, the false alarm rate is reduced by 6.3% and 5.5%, respectively, and the missed alarm rate is reduced by 9.5% and 5.3%, respectively. The high-accuracy fusion early-warning method proposed in this paper has good universality and effectiveness in the early warning of subway foundation pit collapse risk.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7571machine learningdeformation predictionpit collapsemulti-data fusionrisk early warning
spellingShingle Jiajia Zeng
Bo Wu
Cong Liu
Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–Shafer
Applied Sciences
machine learning
deformation prediction
pit collapse
multi-data fusion
risk early warning
title Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–Shafer
title_full Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–Shafer
title_fullStr Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–Shafer
title_full_unstemmed Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–Shafer
title_short Pit Collapse Risk Fusion Early-Warning Method Based on Machine Learning and Improved Cloud Dempster–Shafer
title_sort pit collapse risk fusion early warning method based on machine learning and improved cloud dempster shafer
topic machine learning
deformation prediction
pit collapse
multi-data fusion
risk early warning
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/13/7571
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AT bowu pitcollapseriskfusionearlywarningmethodbasedonmachinelearningandimprovedclouddempstershafer
AT congliu pitcollapseriskfusionearlywarningmethodbasedonmachinelearningandimprovedclouddempstershafer