Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation
Abstract This study explores the response of Arctic sea ice to CO2 removal and its subsequent effects on the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Using multimodel ensembles from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project, we find that most models display incomplete Arcti...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113541 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850187507863388160 |
|---|---|
| author | Hao Yu James A. Screen Mian Xu Stephanie Hay Weiteng Qiu Jennifer L. Catto |
| author_facet | Hao Yu James A. Screen Mian Xu Stephanie Hay Weiteng Qiu Jennifer L. Catto |
| author_sort | Hao Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study explores the response of Arctic sea ice to CO2 removal and its subsequent effects on the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Using multimodel ensembles from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project, we find that most models display incomplete Arctic sea‐ice recovery when CO2 is stabilized back at preindustrial levels, with a deficit of sea‐ice area of around 1 million km2. This sea‐ice deficit is associated with residual equatorward‐shifted wintertime midlatitude jets. Sea‐ice perturbation experiments from the Polar Amplification MIP provide evidence of a causal influence of residual sea‐ice loss on the atmospheric circulation. Model uncertainty in the magnitude of the residual North Atlantic jet shift can be largely explained by the relative magnitudes of residual Arctic and tropical warming across the models. These findings suggest that Arctic sea‐ice loss is not fully reversible after CDR, which leads to residual changes in the mid‐latitude atmospheric circulation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1ba784af7f7248b4b37d2f78f8a3a8b1 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-1ba784af7f7248b4b37d2f78f8a3a8b12025-08-20T02:16:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01525n/an/a10.1029/2024GL113541Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric CirculationHao Yu0James A. Screen1Mian Xu2Stephanie Hay3Weiteng Qiu4Jennifer L. Catto5Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco‐Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Lanzhou ChinaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter Exeter UKAbstract This study explores the response of Arctic sea ice to CO2 removal and its subsequent effects on the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Using multimodel ensembles from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project, we find that most models display incomplete Arctic sea‐ice recovery when CO2 is stabilized back at preindustrial levels, with a deficit of sea‐ice area of around 1 million km2. This sea‐ice deficit is associated with residual equatorward‐shifted wintertime midlatitude jets. Sea‐ice perturbation experiments from the Polar Amplification MIP provide evidence of a causal influence of residual sea‐ice loss on the atmospheric circulation. Model uncertainty in the magnitude of the residual North Atlantic jet shift can be largely explained by the relative magnitudes of residual Arctic and tropical warming across the models. These findings suggest that Arctic sea‐ice loss is not fully reversible after CDR, which leads to residual changes in the mid‐latitude atmospheric circulation.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113541 |
| spellingShingle | Hao Yu James A. Screen Mian Xu Stephanie Hay Weiteng Qiu Jennifer L. Catto Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation |
| title_full | Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation |
| title_fullStr | Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation |
| title_short | Incomplete Arctic Sea‐Ice Recovery Under CO2 Removal and Its Effects on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation |
| title_sort | incomplete arctic sea ice recovery under co2 removal and its effects on the winter atmospheric circulation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113541 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT haoyu incompletearcticseaicerecoveryunderco2removalanditseffectsonthewinteratmosphericcirculation AT jamesascreen incompletearcticseaicerecoveryunderco2removalanditseffectsonthewinteratmosphericcirculation AT mianxu incompletearcticseaicerecoveryunderco2removalanditseffectsonthewinteratmosphericcirculation AT stephaniehay incompletearcticseaicerecoveryunderco2removalanditseffectsonthewinteratmosphericcirculation AT weitengqiu incompletearcticseaicerecoveryunderco2removalanditseffectsonthewinteratmosphericcirculation AT jenniferlcatto incompletearcticseaicerecoveryunderco2removalanditseffectsonthewinteratmosphericcirculation |