Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance
Abstract Scenarios play a pivotal role in linking climate science to policy action, informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its annual Conferences of the Partie...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-05-01
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| Series: | npj Climate Action |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00250-5 |
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| _version_ | 1850268870988791808 |
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| author | Jiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen Carla Gomes Patrick O’Rourke Detlef van Vuuren Joyeeta Gupta Filipe Duarte Santos Rob Swart |
| author_facet | Jiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen Carla Gomes Patrick O’Rourke Detlef van Vuuren Joyeeta Gupta Filipe Duarte Santos Rob Swart |
| author_sort | Jiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Scenarios play a pivotal role in linking climate science to policy action, informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs)1–3. However, policymakers’ (PMs) perspectives remain understudied. Here, we surveyed UNFCCC National Focal Points (N = 278/n = 57), assessing the knowledge base of international-national PMs, perceptions of scenarios’ policy relevance, and plausible improvements. Results highlight a significant regional knowledge gap, with lower scenario familiarity for PMs representing low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, policymakers request more straightforward scenario communication and more detail. To improve scenario relevance (credibility and legitimacy)4, we recommend more actively disseminating scenario knowledge (enhancing institutional capacity) in the Global South and providing more policy-relevant detail into global scenarios and national extensions (linking scenarios to on-the-ground policy action). This also means reassessing the IPCC’s cautiousness concerning being policy-neutral. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1b9dcd4bee6046de9be494533866ac9b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2731-9814 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate Action |
| spelling | doaj-art-1b9dcd4bee6046de9be494533866ac9b2025-08-20T01:53:20ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate Action2731-98142025-05-014111610.1038/s44168-025-00250-5Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevanceJiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen0Carla Gomes1Patrick O’Rourke2Detlef van Vuuren3Joyeeta Gupta4Filipe Duarte Santos5Rob Swart6Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht UniversityInstitute of Social Sciences, University of LisbonPacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research InstituteCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht UniversityGovernance and Inclusive Development, Geography, Planning and International Development Studies, AISSR, University of AmsterdamcE3c — Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, CHANGE—Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of LisboncE3c - Center for Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Changes & PFE – Plant Functional Ecology, Faculty of Science, University of LisbonAbstract Scenarios play a pivotal role in linking climate science to policy action, informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs)1–3. However, policymakers’ (PMs) perspectives remain understudied. Here, we surveyed UNFCCC National Focal Points (N = 278/n = 57), assessing the knowledge base of international-national PMs, perceptions of scenarios’ policy relevance, and plausible improvements. Results highlight a significant regional knowledge gap, with lower scenario familiarity for PMs representing low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, policymakers request more straightforward scenario communication and more detail. To improve scenario relevance (credibility and legitimacy)4, we recommend more actively disseminating scenario knowledge (enhancing institutional capacity) in the Global South and providing more policy-relevant detail into global scenarios and national extensions (linking scenarios to on-the-ground policy action). This also means reassessing the IPCC’s cautiousness concerning being policy-neutral.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00250-5 |
| spellingShingle | Jiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen Carla Gomes Patrick O’Rourke Detlef van Vuuren Joyeeta Gupta Filipe Duarte Santos Rob Swart Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance npj Climate Action |
| title | Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance |
| title_full | Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance |
| title_fullStr | Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance |
| title_short | Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance |
| title_sort | science policy unfccc policymakers perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00250-5 |
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