Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data
Effective incident detection is essential for emergency response and transportation management. Traditional methods relying on stationary technologies are often costly and provide limited coverage, prompting the exploration of crowdsourced data such as Waze. While Waze offers extensive coverage, its...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-05-01
|
| Series: | Information |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/16/6/423 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849432550291800064 |
|---|---|
| author | Md Tufajjal Hossain Joyoung Lee Dejan Besenski Branislav Dimitrijevic Lazar Spasovic |
| author_facet | Md Tufajjal Hossain Joyoung Lee Dejan Besenski Branislav Dimitrijevic Lazar Spasovic |
| author_sort | Md Tufajjal Hossain |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Effective incident detection is essential for emergency response and transportation management. Traditional methods relying on stationary technologies are often costly and provide limited coverage, prompting the exploration of crowdsourced data such as Waze. While Waze offers extensive coverage, its data can be unverified and unreliable. This study aims to identify factors affecting the reliability of Waze alerts and develop a predictive model to distinguish true incidents from false alerts using real-time Waze data, thereby improving emergency response times. Real crash data from the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) and crowdsourced data from Waze were matched using the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm to differentiate true and false alerts. A binary logit model was constructed to reveal significant predictors such as time categories around peak hours, road type, report ratings, and crash type. Findings indicate that the likelihood of accurate Waze alerts increases during peak hours, on streets, and with higher report ratings and major crashes. Additionally, multiple machine learning-based predictive models were developed and evaluated to forecast in real time whether Waze alerts correspond to actual incidents. Among those models, the Random Forest model achieved the highest overall accuracy (82.5%) and F1-score (82.8%), and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.90, demonstrating its robustness and reliability for real-time incident detection. Gradient Boosting, with an AUC-ROC of 0.90 and Area Under the Precision–Recall Curve (AUC-PR) of 0.90, also performed strongly, particularly excelling at predicting true alerts. The analysis further emphasized the importance of key predictors such as time of day, report ratings, and road type. These findings provide actionable insights for enhancing the accuracy of incident detection and improving the reliability of crowdsourced traffic alerts, supporting more effective traffic management and emergency response systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1b8c5bb53db04cce9a2823a11f6591fd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2078-2489 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Information |
| spelling | doaj-art-1b8c5bb53db04cce9a2823a11f6591fd2025-08-20T03:27:19ZengMDPI AGInformation2078-24892025-05-0116642310.3390/info16060423Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing DataMd Tufajjal Hossain0Joyoung Lee1Dejan Besenski2Branislav Dimitrijevic3Lazar Spasovic4Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USADepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USADepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USADepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USADepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USAEffective incident detection is essential for emergency response and transportation management. Traditional methods relying on stationary technologies are often costly and provide limited coverage, prompting the exploration of crowdsourced data such as Waze. While Waze offers extensive coverage, its data can be unverified and unreliable. This study aims to identify factors affecting the reliability of Waze alerts and develop a predictive model to distinguish true incidents from false alerts using real-time Waze data, thereby improving emergency response times. Real crash data from the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) and crowdsourced data from Waze were matched using the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm to differentiate true and false alerts. A binary logit model was constructed to reveal significant predictors such as time categories around peak hours, road type, report ratings, and crash type. Findings indicate that the likelihood of accurate Waze alerts increases during peak hours, on streets, and with higher report ratings and major crashes. Additionally, multiple machine learning-based predictive models were developed and evaluated to forecast in real time whether Waze alerts correspond to actual incidents. Among those models, the Random Forest model achieved the highest overall accuracy (82.5%) and F1-score (82.8%), and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.90, demonstrating its robustness and reliability for real-time incident detection. Gradient Boosting, with an AUC-ROC of 0.90 and Area Under the Precision–Recall Curve (AUC-PR) of 0.90, also performed strongly, particularly excelling at predicting true alerts. The analysis further emphasized the importance of key predictors such as time of day, report ratings, and road type. These findings provide actionable insights for enhancing the accuracy of incident detection and improving the reliability of crowdsourced traffic alerts, supporting more effective traffic management and emergency response systems.https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/16/6/423incident detectionWaze alertsrandom forestcrowdsourced datatransportation management |
| spellingShingle | Md Tufajjal Hossain Joyoung Lee Dejan Besenski Branislav Dimitrijevic Lazar Spasovic Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data Information incident detection Waze alerts random forest crowdsourced data transportation management |
| title | Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data |
| title_full | Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data |
| title_fullStr | Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data |
| title_short | Developing a Prediction Model for Real-Time Incident Detection Leveraging User-Oriented Participatory Sensing Data |
| title_sort | developing a prediction model for real time incident detection leveraging user oriented participatory sensing data |
| topic | incident detection Waze alerts random forest crowdsourced data transportation management |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/16/6/423 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mdtufajjalhossain developingapredictionmodelforrealtimeincidentdetectionleveraginguserorientedparticipatorysensingdata AT joyounglee developingapredictionmodelforrealtimeincidentdetectionleveraginguserorientedparticipatorysensingdata AT dejanbesenski developingapredictionmodelforrealtimeincidentdetectionleveraginguserorientedparticipatorysensingdata AT branislavdimitrijevic developingapredictionmodelforrealtimeincidentdetectionleveraginguserorientedparticipatorysensingdata AT lazarspasovic developingapredictionmodelforrealtimeincidentdetectionleveraginguserorientedparticipatorysensingdata |