Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma

ObjectiveConditional survival (CS) offers a more precise assessment of prognosis by continuously updating to reflect the current state. This study aimed to analyze the CS outcome of redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (rATC).MethodsA cohort comprising 1424 patients diagnosed with rATC between 200...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yinuo Zheng, Yizhen Zhuang, Peng Zhou
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-06-01
Series:Frontiers in Endocrinology
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1525869/full
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849336402411520000
author Yinuo Zheng
Yizhen Zhuang
Peng Zhou
author_facet Yinuo Zheng
Yizhen Zhuang
Peng Zhou
author_sort Yinuo Zheng
collection DOAJ
description ObjectiveConditional survival (CS) offers a more precise assessment of prognosis by continuously updating to reflect the current state. This study aimed to analyze the CS outcome of redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (rATC).MethodsA cohort comprising 1424 patients diagnosed with rATC between 2000 and 2018 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and subsequently divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 3:1. We analyzed the CS prognosis of these patients. A Lasso Cox regression model was employed to determine independent risk factors for long-term survival and to develop a predictive nomogram integrating CS analysis, aiming to provide CS estimates and stratify the risk among rATC patients.ResultsThe likelihood of achieving 5-year CS escalated from 8% after diagnosis to 44%, 68%, 82%, and 95% after 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of survival, respectively. As patients endured longer, their probability of further years of survival augmented. The Lasso Cox regression analysis identified age, tumor stage, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy as the most influential prognostic factors associated with outcomes. Ultimately, we successfully established a novel CS-nomogram, aiming to provide dynamic survival updates for these patients. Our predictive model can quantify patients’ risk and stratify it accordingly. Furthermore, after evaluation, the performance of our predictive model was found to be satisfactory.ConclusionUtilizing extensive SEER datasets, we devised and validated a CS-nomogram, enabling the prediction of the conditional probability of survival for rATC patients. This facilitates the incorporation of survivorship duration into prognostic assessments.
format Article
id doaj-art-1b70fe4dd0ce4d0f96f038bf901f370a
institution Kabale University
issn 1664-2392
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
record_format Article
series Frontiers in Endocrinology
spelling doaj-art-1b70fe4dd0ce4d0f96f038bf901f370a2025-08-20T03:44:58ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922025-06-011610.3389/fendo.2025.15258691525869Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinomaYinuo Zheng0Yizhen Zhuang1Peng Zhou2Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, ChinaDepartment of Medical Record Office, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, ChinaDepartment of Heria and Abdominal Wall Surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, ChinaObjectiveConditional survival (CS) offers a more precise assessment of prognosis by continuously updating to reflect the current state. This study aimed to analyze the CS outcome of redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (rATC).MethodsA cohort comprising 1424 patients diagnosed with rATC between 2000 and 2018 was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and subsequently divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 3:1. We analyzed the CS prognosis of these patients. A Lasso Cox regression model was employed to determine independent risk factors for long-term survival and to develop a predictive nomogram integrating CS analysis, aiming to provide CS estimates and stratify the risk among rATC patients.ResultsThe likelihood of achieving 5-year CS escalated from 8% after diagnosis to 44%, 68%, 82%, and 95% after 1, 2, 3, and 4 years of survival, respectively. As patients endured longer, their probability of further years of survival augmented. The Lasso Cox regression analysis identified age, tumor stage, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy as the most influential prognostic factors associated with outcomes. Ultimately, we successfully established a novel CS-nomogram, aiming to provide dynamic survival updates for these patients. Our predictive model can quantify patients’ risk and stratify it accordingly. Furthermore, after evaluation, the performance of our predictive model was found to be satisfactory.ConclusionUtilizing extensive SEER datasets, we devised and validated a CS-nomogram, enabling the prediction of the conditional probability of survival for rATC patients. This facilitates the incorporation of survivorship duration into prognostic assessments.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1525869/fullSEERanaplastic thyroid carcinomaconditional survivalnomogramdynamic survival prediction
spellingShingle Yinuo Zheng
Yizhen Zhuang
Peng Zhou
Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
Frontiers in Endocrinology
SEER
anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
conditional survival
nomogram
dynamic survival prediction
title Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
title_full Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
title_fullStr Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
title_short Evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
title_sort evaluation of conditional survival outcomes in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
topic SEER
anaplastic thyroid carcinoma
conditional survival
nomogram
dynamic survival prediction
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1525869/full
work_keys_str_mv AT yinuozheng evaluationofconditionalsurvivaloutcomesinpatientswithredefinedanaplasticthyroidcarcinoma
AT yizhenzhuang evaluationofconditionalsurvivaloutcomesinpatientswithredefinedanaplasticthyroidcarcinoma
AT pengzhou evaluationofconditionalsurvivaloutcomesinpatientswithredefinedanaplasticthyroidcarcinoma