Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summaries

Abstract Background We performed a systematic survey to collate studies on prediction models developed on the basis of meta-analysis in medicine and summarize key steps involved in model development. Methods We systematically searched Web of Science, PubMed and Embase until April 2023 and included t...

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Main Authors: Qiuyu Yang, Ying Li, Chen Tian, Jinling Ning, Yan Ma, Bei Pan, Jinhui Tian, Long Ge
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-08-01
Series:BMC Medical Research Methodology
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-025-02639-6
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author Qiuyu Yang
Ying Li
Chen Tian
Jinling Ning
Yan Ma
Bei Pan
Jinhui Tian
Long Ge
author_facet Qiuyu Yang
Ying Li
Chen Tian
Jinling Ning
Yan Ma
Bei Pan
Jinhui Tian
Long Ge
author_sort Qiuyu Yang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background We performed a systematic survey to collate studies on prediction models developed on the basis of meta-analysis in medicine and summarize key steps involved in model development. Methods We systematically searched Web of Science, PubMed and Embase until April 2023 and included those that developed prediction models on the basis of meta-analysis. The data were summarized via narrative synthesis. Results The search strategy identified 23 studies with 25 prediction models that met the eligibility criteria. The predicted outcomes focused on complications of diabetes, mortality, cognitive impairment, gestational diabetes, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, bacterial sinusitis, seizures, and psychosis. Twenty-three prediction models reported AUCs, with a median value of 0.77 (range: 0.59–0.91). Ten prediction models were developed with sample sizes exceeding 10,000 participants. The key steps in developing prediction models via meta-analysis include (1) confirming that the prediction model meets clinical needs before starting, (2) collecting data through meta-analysis to select predictors, (3) developing prediction models, (4) validating prediction model performance, (5) presenting and interpreting models and (6) reporting models. Conclusion The development of prediction models based on meta-analysis may represent a promising approach, which demonstrates good discrimination. Guidance is necessary to support the design, implementation and reporting of future prediction model development via meta-analysis.
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publishDate 2025-08-01
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spelling doaj-art-1b1de6eb352e4db1b0dd1ebd5791b1cb2025-08-20T04:02:57ZengBMCBMC Medical Research Methodology1471-22882025-08-0125111110.1186/s12874-025-02639-6Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summariesQiuyu Yang0Ying Li1Chen Tian2Jinling Ning3Yan Ma4Bei Pan5Jinhui Tian6Long Ge7Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou UniversityDepartment of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou UniversityDepartment of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou UniversityDepartment of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou UniversityDepartment of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou UniversityEvidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou UniversityEvidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou UniversityDepartment of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou UniversityAbstract Background We performed a systematic survey to collate studies on prediction models developed on the basis of meta-analysis in medicine and summarize key steps involved in model development. Methods We systematically searched Web of Science, PubMed and Embase until April 2023 and included those that developed prediction models on the basis of meta-analysis. The data were summarized via narrative synthesis. Results The search strategy identified 23 studies with 25 prediction models that met the eligibility criteria. The predicted outcomes focused on complications of diabetes, mortality, cognitive impairment, gestational diabetes, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, bacterial sinusitis, seizures, and psychosis. Twenty-three prediction models reported AUCs, with a median value of 0.77 (range: 0.59–0.91). Ten prediction models were developed with sample sizes exceeding 10,000 participants. The key steps in developing prediction models via meta-analysis include (1) confirming that the prediction model meets clinical needs before starting, (2) collecting data through meta-analysis to select predictors, (3) developing prediction models, (4) validating prediction model performance, (5) presenting and interpreting models and (6) reporting models. Conclusion The development of prediction models based on meta-analysis may represent a promising approach, which demonstrates good discrimination. Guidance is necessary to support the design, implementation and reporting of future prediction model development via meta-analysis.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-025-02639-6Prediction modelSystematic reviewMeta-analysisDevelopmentMethodology
spellingShingle Qiuyu Yang
Ying Li
Chen Tian
Jinling Ning
Yan Ma
Bei Pan
Jinhui Tian
Long Ge
Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summaries
BMC Medical Research Methodology
Prediction model
Systematic review
Meta-analysis
Development
Methodology
title Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summaries
title_full Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summaries
title_fullStr Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summaries
title_full_unstemmed Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summaries
title_short Prediction model developed on the basis of meta-analysis in the field of medicine: a systematic survey and methodological summaries
title_sort prediction model developed on the basis of meta analysis in the field of medicine a systematic survey and methodological summaries
topic Prediction model
Systematic review
Meta-analysis
Development
Methodology
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-025-02639-6
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