Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt

As China’s first systematic assessment of high-risk <i>Amaranthaceae</i> invaders, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap identified in the National Invasive Species Inventory, in which four invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> species (<i>Dysphania ambrosioides</i&g...

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Main Authors: Mao Lin, Xingzhuang Ye, Zixin Zhao, Shipin Chen, Bao Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-08-01
Series:Plants
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/15/2363
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author Mao Lin
Xingzhuang Ye
Zixin Zhao
Shipin Chen
Bao Liu
author_facet Mao Lin
Xingzhuang Ye
Zixin Zhao
Shipin Chen
Bao Liu
author_sort Mao Lin
collection DOAJ
description As China’s first systematic assessment of high-risk <i>Amaranthaceae</i> invaders, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap identified in the National Invasive Species Inventory, in which four invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> species (<i>Dysphania ambrosioides</i>, <i>Celosia argentea</i>, <i>Amaranthus palmeri</i>, and <i>Amaranthus spinosus</i>) are prioritized due to CNY 2.6 billion annual ecosystem damages in China. By coupling multi-species comparative analysis with a parameter-optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model integrating climate, soil, and topographical variables in China under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 126/245/585 scenarios, we reveal divergent expansion mechanisms (e.g., 247 km faster northward shift in <i>A. palmeri</i> than <i>D. ambrosioides</i>) that redefine invasion corridors in the North China Plain. Under current conditions, the suitable habitats of these species span from 92° E to 129° E and 18° N to 49° N, with high-risk zones concentrated in central and southern China, including the Yunnan–Guizhou–Sichuan region and the North China Plain. Temperature variables (Bio: Bioclimatic Variables; Bio6, Bio11) were the primary contributors based on permutation importance (e.g., Bio11 explained 56.4% for <i>C. argentea</i>), while altitude (e.g., 27.3% for <i>A. palmeri</i>) and UV-B (e.g., 16.2% for <i>A. palmeri</i>) exerted lower influence. Model validation confirmed high accuracy (mean area under the curve (AUC) > 0.86 and true skill statistic (TSS) > 0.6). By the 2090s, all species showed net habitat expansion overall, although <i>D. ambrosioides</i> exhibited net total contractions during mid-century under the SSP126/245 scenarios, <i>C. argentea</i> experienced reduced total suitability during the 2050s–2070s despite high-suitability growth, and <i>A. palmeri</i> and <i>A. spinosus</i> expanded significantly in both total and highly suitable habitat. All species shifted their distribution centroids northward, aligning with warming trends. Overall, these findings highlight the critical role of temperature in driving range dynamics and underscore the need for latitude-specific monitoring strategies to mitigate invasion risks, providing a scientific basis for adaptive management under global climate change.
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publishDate 2025-08-01
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spelling doaj-art-1b0b27cd291d4013b9c94b56dcb8ac822025-08-20T04:00:49ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472025-08-011415236310.3390/plants14152363Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEntMao Lin0Xingzhuang Ye1Zixin Zhao2Shipin Chen3Bao Liu4College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, ChinaCollege of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, ChinaAs China’s first systematic assessment of high-risk <i>Amaranthaceae</i> invaders, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap identified in the National Invasive Species Inventory, in which four invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> species (<i>Dysphania ambrosioides</i>, <i>Celosia argentea</i>, <i>Amaranthus palmeri</i>, and <i>Amaranthus spinosus</i>) are prioritized due to CNY 2.6 billion annual ecosystem damages in China. By coupling multi-species comparative analysis with a parameter-optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model integrating climate, soil, and topographical variables in China under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 126/245/585 scenarios, we reveal divergent expansion mechanisms (e.g., 247 km faster northward shift in <i>A. palmeri</i> than <i>D. ambrosioides</i>) that redefine invasion corridors in the North China Plain. Under current conditions, the suitable habitats of these species span from 92° E to 129° E and 18° N to 49° N, with high-risk zones concentrated in central and southern China, including the Yunnan–Guizhou–Sichuan region and the North China Plain. Temperature variables (Bio: Bioclimatic Variables; Bio6, Bio11) were the primary contributors based on permutation importance (e.g., Bio11 explained 56.4% for <i>C. argentea</i>), while altitude (e.g., 27.3% for <i>A. palmeri</i>) and UV-B (e.g., 16.2% for <i>A. palmeri</i>) exerted lower influence. Model validation confirmed high accuracy (mean area under the curve (AUC) > 0.86 and true skill statistic (TSS) > 0.6). By the 2090s, all species showed net habitat expansion overall, although <i>D. ambrosioides</i> exhibited net total contractions during mid-century under the SSP126/245 scenarios, <i>C. argentea</i> experienced reduced total suitability during the 2050s–2070s despite high-suitability growth, and <i>A. palmeri</i> and <i>A. spinosus</i> expanded significantly in both total and highly suitable habitat. All species shifted their distribution centroids northward, aligning with warming trends. Overall, these findings highlight the critical role of temperature in driving range dynamics and underscore the need for latitude-specific monitoring strategies to mitigate invasion risks, providing a scientific basis for adaptive management under global climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/15/2363climate changeMaxEnt model<i>Amaranthaceae</i>habitat suitabilityinvasive plantsbioclimatic variables
spellingShingle Mao Lin
Xingzhuang Ye
Zixin Zhao
Shipin Chen
Bao Liu
Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt
Plants
climate change
MaxEnt model
<i>Amaranthaceae</i>
habitat suitability
invasive plants
bioclimatic variables
title Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt
title_full Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt
title_fullStr Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt
title_full_unstemmed Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt
title_short Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive <i>Amaranthaceae</i> Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt
title_sort comparative analysis of habitat expansion mechanisms for four invasive i amaranthaceae i plants under current and future climates using maxent
topic climate change
MaxEnt model
<i>Amaranthaceae</i>
habitat suitability
invasive plants
bioclimatic variables
url https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/15/2363
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AT xingzhuangye comparativeanalysisofhabitatexpansionmechanismsforfourinvasiveiamaranthaceaeiplantsundercurrentandfutureclimatesusingmaxent
AT zixinzhao comparativeanalysisofhabitatexpansionmechanismsforfourinvasiveiamaranthaceaeiplantsundercurrentandfutureclimatesusingmaxent
AT shipinchen comparativeanalysisofhabitatexpansionmechanismsforfourinvasiveiamaranthaceaeiplantsundercurrentandfutureclimatesusingmaxent
AT baoliu comparativeanalysisofhabitatexpansionmechanismsforfourinvasiveiamaranthaceaeiplantsundercurrentandfutureclimatesusingmaxent