Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades
Abstract Between 1985 and 2014 observations show an expansion of Southern Ocean sea‐ice. This phenomena is not simulated in CMIP6 Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Here we quantify the impact of this discrepancy on radiative feedback and simulated global temperature trends. We fi...
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Wiley
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115657 |
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| author | H. Mutton T. Andrews |
| author_facet | H. Mutton T. Andrews |
| author_sort | H. Mutton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Between 1985 and 2014 observations show an expansion of Southern Ocean sea‐ice. This phenomena is not simulated in CMIP6 Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Here we quantify the impact of this discrepancy on radiative feedback and simulated global temperature trends. We find that both satellite reconstructions of the Earth's energy budget and atmosphere‐only GCM simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea‐ice trends support the hypothesis of a negative surface albedo feedback over the Southern Ocean. In contrast, declining sea‐ice in AOGCMs gives rise to a positive feedback. We estimate that had the AOGCMs simulated the observed Southern Ocean sea‐ice evolution their global feedback parameter would be less positive by 0.07–0.23 Wm−2K−1 (which is 12%–29% of the total difference between AOGCM simulations and simulations forced with observed SST and sea‐ice) and their global temperature trend over this 30 year period reduced by 0.01–0.06 K decade−1. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1a9fff09a486463394208bf30ea7f26f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-1a9fff09a486463394208bf30ea7f26f2025-08-20T01:51:50ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-04-01527n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115657Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent DecadesH. Mutton0T. Andrews1Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre Exeter UKAbstract Between 1985 and 2014 observations show an expansion of Southern Ocean sea‐ice. This phenomena is not simulated in CMIP6 Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Here we quantify the impact of this discrepancy on radiative feedback and simulated global temperature trends. We find that both satellite reconstructions of the Earth's energy budget and atmosphere‐only GCM simulations forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea‐ice trends support the hypothesis of a negative surface albedo feedback over the Southern Ocean. In contrast, declining sea‐ice in AOGCMs gives rise to a positive feedback. We estimate that had the AOGCMs simulated the observed Southern Ocean sea‐ice evolution their global feedback parameter would be less positive by 0.07–0.23 Wm−2K−1 (which is 12%–29% of the total difference between AOGCM simulations and simulations forced with observed SST and sea‐ice) and their global temperature trend over this 30 year period reduced by 0.01–0.06 K decade−1.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115657feedbackshistoricalsea iceglobal surface temperature trends |
| spellingShingle | H. Mutton T. Andrews Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades Geophysical Research Letters feedbacks historical sea ice global surface temperature trends |
| title | Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades |
| title_full | Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades |
| title_fullStr | Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades |
| title_full_unstemmed | Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades |
| title_short | Biases in Climate Model Global Warming Trends Related to Deficiencies in Southern Ocean Sea Ice Evolution Over Recent Decades |
| title_sort | biases in climate model global warming trends related to deficiencies in southern ocean sea ice evolution over recent decades |
| topic | feedbacks historical sea ice global surface temperature trends |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115657 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hmutton biasesinclimatemodelglobalwarmingtrendsrelatedtodeficienciesinsouthernoceanseaiceevolutionoverrecentdecades AT tandrews biasesinclimatemodelglobalwarmingtrendsrelatedtodeficienciesinsouthernoceanseaiceevolutionoverrecentdecades |