Causality Relationship Between Economic, Financial, Political Risk and Growth: The Case of Turkey
This study aims to examine the causality relationship between Turkey’s economic, financial and political risk ratios and growth. Toda-Yamamoto causality, Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality, and time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality tests were used to examine the relationship between the ris...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Istanbul University Press
2022-01-01
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| Series: | İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/513513B45C1945089422418001D5BF71 |
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| Summary: | This study aims to examine the causality relationship between Turkey’s economic, financial and political risk ratios and growth. Toda-Yamamoto causality, Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality, and time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality tests were used to examine the relationship between the risk ratios and growth between 2000- 2020. The findings show that (i) The Toda-Yamamoto causality test shows a causal relationship between financial risk and growth, economic risk and financial risk, and economic risk and political risk. (ii) The Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto causality test revealed a causal relationship between financial risk and growth. The Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto, asymmetric causality test, showed that a positive shock in financial risk causes a positive shock in growth, a negative shock in financial risk causes a negative shock in growth, and a negative shock in political risk causes a positive shock in growth. (iii) The time-varying relationship symmetric causality tests allowed for detecting causality between economic risk and growth, financial risk and growth, and political risk and growth. The time-varying relationship asymmetric causality tests revealed that a negative shock in economic risk caused a positive shock in growth; a positive shock in economic risk caused a negative shock in growth; a negative shock in financial risk caused a positive shock in growth and demonstrated the effects of the positive shock in financial risk as a negative shock in growth. However, a negative shock in growth was only observed when there was a positive shock in political risk. |
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| ISSN: | 2148-3876 |