Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations
Abstract In this study, a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model (HSHM) in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map (NSGM) and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern grou...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SpringerOpen
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | International Journal of Disaster Risk Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00597-z |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850134635703435264 |
|---|---|
| author | Jian Ma Katsuichiro Goda Han-Ping Hong Kai Liu Weijin Xu Jia Cheng Ming Wang |
| author_facet | Jian Ma Katsuichiro Goda Han-Ping Hong Kai Liu Weijin Xu Jia Cheng Ming Wang |
| author_sort | Jian Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this study, a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model (HSHM) in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map (NSGM) and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). This model incorporates the characteristics of smoothed seismicity and areal sources for regional seismic hazard assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard for the North China Plain earthquake belt was investigated through sensitivity analysis related to the seismicity model and GMPEs. The analysis results indicate that the Hybrid model can produce a consistent result with the NSGM model in many cases. However, the NSGM model tends to overestimate hazard values in locations where no major events have occurred and underestimate hazard values in locations where major events have occurred. The Hybrid model can mitigate the degree of such biases. Compared to the modern GMPEs, the GMPE with epicentral distance measures significantly underestimate the seismic hazard under near-field and large-magnitude scenarios. In addition, a comparison of the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) obtained by the models, with China’s design spectrum, shows that the current design spectrum is more conservative than the calculated UHS. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-193a58ae2fdf4a1bb095e4913ee0af08 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2095-0055 2192-6395 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Disaster Risk Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-193a58ae2fdf4a1bb095e4913ee0af082025-08-20T02:31:40ZengSpringerOpenInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Science2095-00552192-63952024-12-0115695497110.1007/s13753-024-00597-zProbabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction EquationsJian Ma0Katsuichiro Goda1Han-Ping Hong2Kai Liu3Weijin Xu4Jia Cheng5Ming Wang6Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, China Earthquake Administration/Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, Ministry of Emergency ManagementDepartment of Earth Sciences, Western UniversitySchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen)School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal UniversityLaboratory of Strong Motion Seismology, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake AdministrationSchool of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences BeijingSchool of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal UniversityAbstract In this study, a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model (HSHM) in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map (NSGM) and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). This model incorporates the characteristics of smoothed seismicity and areal sources for regional seismic hazard assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard for the North China Plain earthquake belt was investigated through sensitivity analysis related to the seismicity model and GMPEs. The analysis results indicate that the Hybrid model can produce a consistent result with the NSGM model in many cases. However, the NSGM model tends to overestimate hazard values in locations where no major events have occurred and underestimate hazard values in locations where major events have occurred. The Hybrid model can mitigate the degree of such biases. Compared to the modern GMPEs, the GMPE with epicentral distance measures significantly underestimate the seismic hazard under near-field and large-magnitude scenarios. In addition, a comparison of the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) obtained by the models, with China’s design spectrum, shows that the current design spectrum is more conservative than the calculated UHS.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00597-zProbabilistic seismic hazard analysisSeismic hazard modelSeismic riskSensitivity analysis |
| spellingShingle | Jian Ma Katsuichiro Goda Han-Ping Hong Kai Liu Weijin Xu Jia Cheng Ming Wang Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations International Journal of Disaster Risk Science Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Seismic hazard model Seismic risk Sensitivity analysis |
| title | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations |
| title_full | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations |
| title_short | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations |
| title_sort | probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the north china plain earthquake belt sensitivity of seismic source models and ground motion prediction equations |
| topic | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Seismic hazard model Seismic risk Sensitivity analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-024-00597-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jianma probabilisticseismichazardassessmentforthenorthchinaplainearthquakebeltsensitivityofseismicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionpredictionequations AT katsuichirogoda probabilisticseismichazardassessmentforthenorthchinaplainearthquakebeltsensitivityofseismicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionpredictionequations AT hanpinghong probabilisticseismichazardassessmentforthenorthchinaplainearthquakebeltsensitivityofseismicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionpredictionequations AT kailiu probabilisticseismichazardassessmentforthenorthchinaplainearthquakebeltsensitivityofseismicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionpredictionequations AT weijinxu probabilisticseismichazardassessmentforthenorthchinaplainearthquakebeltsensitivityofseismicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionpredictionequations AT jiacheng probabilisticseismichazardassessmentforthenorthchinaplainearthquakebeltsensitivityofseismicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionpredictionequations AT mingwang probabilisticseismichazardassessmentforthenorthchinaplainearthquakebeltsensitivityofseismicsourcemodelsandgroundmotionpredictionequations |