Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction System

Earthquake prediction is one of the most challenging enterprises of science. Any prediction system must be based on the search for a precursor appearing during the preparation phase of an earthquake in the ground, atmosphere, or ionosphere that can anticipate its occurrence. We present methods to de...

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Main Authors: Angelo De Santis, Gianfranco Cianchini, Loredana Perrone, Maurizio Soldani, Habib Rahimi, Homayoon Alimoradi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-02-01
Series:Geosciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/2/69
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author Angelo De Santis
Gianfranco Cianchini
Loredana Perrone
Maurizio Soldani
Habib Rahimi
Homayoon Alimoradi
author_facet Angelo De Santis
Gianfranco Cianchini
Loredana Perrone
Maurizio Soldani
Habib Rahimi
Homayoon Alimoradi
author_sort Angelo De Santis
collection DOAJ
description Earthquake prediction is one of the most challenging enterprises of science. Any prediction system must be based on the search for a precursor appearing during the preparation phase of an earthquake in the ground, atmosphere, or ionosphere that can anticipate its occurrence. We present methods to detect potential pre-earthquake anomalies. In particular, we show the analysis of lithospheric, atmospheric, and ionospheric data and the detection of anomalies under specific criteria. When we apply these methods retrospectively, we find that their accuracy goes from 69% to 83%. The combination of two or more methods is expected to improve the accuracy.
format Article
id doaj-art-191dba5de8bc4886b4037bd5ca250460
institution DOAJ
issn 2076-3263
language English
publishDate 2025-02-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Geosciences
spelling doaj-art-191dba5de8bc4886b4037bd5ca2504602025-08-20T02:44:32ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632025-02-011526910.3390/geosciences15020069Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction SystemAngelo De Santis0Gianfranco Cianchini1Loredana Perrone2Maurizio Soldani3Habib Rahimi4Homayoon Alimoradi5Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, ItalyInstitute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran 14155-6619, IranInstitute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran 14155-6619, IranEarthquake prediction is one of the most challenging enterprises of science. Any prediction system must be based on the search for a precursor appearing during the preparation phase of an earthquake in the ground, atmosphere, or ionosphere that can anticipate its occurrence. We present methods to detect potential pre-earthquake anomalies. In particular, we show the analysis of lithospheric, atmospheric, and ionospheric data and the detection of anomalies under specific criteria. When we apply these methods retrospectively, we find that their accuracy goes from 69% to 83%. The combination of two or more methods is expected to improve the accuracy.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/2/69earthquakepredictionprecursorsLAIC
spellingShingle Angelo De Santis
Gianfranco Cianchini
Loredana Perrone
Maurizio Soldani
Habib Rahimi
Homayoon Alimoradi
Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction System
Geosciences
earthquake
prediction
precursors
LAIC
title Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction System
title_full Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction System
title_fullStr Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction System
title_full_unstemmed Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction System
title_short Foundations for an Operational Earthquake Prediction System
title_sort foundations for an operational earthquake prediction system
topic earthquake
prediction
precursors
LAIC
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/2/69
work_keys_str_mv AT angelodesantis foundationsforanoperationalearthquakepredictionsystem
AT gianfrancocianchini foundationsforanoperationalearthquakepredictionsystem
AT loredanaperrone foundationsforanoperationalearthquakepredictionsystem
AT mauriziosoldani foundationsforanoperationalearthquakepredictionsystem
AT habibrahimi foundationsforanoperationalearthquakepredictionsystem
AT homayoonalimoradi foundationsforanoperationalearthquakepredictionsystem