Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model
Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are generally attributed to the particle acceleration in shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Space-weather effects of such events are important, so there has been continuous effort to develop models able to forecast their various charact...
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EDP Sciences
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2025/01/swsc240038/swsc240038.html |
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| _version_ | 1825206458670645248 |
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| author | Afanasiev Alexandr Wijsen Nicolas Vainio Rami |
| author_facet | Afanasiev Alexandr Wijsen Nicolas Vainio Rami |
| author_sort | Afanasiev Alexandr |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are generally attributed to the particle acceleration in shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Space-weather effects of such events are important, so there has been continuous effort to develop models able to forecast their various characteristics. Here we present the first version of a new such model with the primary goal to address energetic storm particle (ESP) events. The model, PARASOL, is built upon the PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration (PARADISE) test-particle simulation model of SEP transport, but includes a semi-analytical description of an inner (i.e., near the shock) part of the foreshock region. The semi-analytical foreshock description is constructed using simulations with the SOLar Particle Acceleration in Coronal Shocks (SOLPACS) model, which simulates proton acceleration self-consistently coupled with Alfvén wave generation upstream of the shock, and subsequent fitting of the simulation results with suitable analytical functions. PARASOL requires input of solar wind and shock magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) parameters. We evaluate the performance of PARASOL by simulating the 12 July 2012 SEP event, using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) MHD simulation of the solar wind and CME in this event. The PARASOL simulation has reproduced the observed ESP event (E ≲ 5 MeV) in the close vicinity of the shock within one order of magnitude in intensity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-18f7f401719e413289df58baa0d93b45 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2115-7251 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate |
| spelling | doaj-art-18f7f401719e413289df58baa0d93b452025-02-07T08:34:10ZengEDP SciencesJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate2115-72512025-01-0115310.1051/swsc/2024039swsc240038Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL modelAfanasiev Alexandr0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9325-6758Wijsen Nicolas1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6344-6956Vainio Rami2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3298-2067Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of TurkuCentre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, KU Leuven Campus KulakDepartment of Physics and Astronomy, University of TurkuGradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are generally attributed to the particle acceleration in shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Space-weather effects of such events are important, so there has been continuous effort to develop models able to forecast their various characteristics. Here we present the first version of a new such model with the primary goal to address energetic storm particle (ESP) events. The model, PARASOL, is built upon the PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration (PARADISE) test-particle simulation model of SEP transport, but includes a semi-analytical description of an inner (i.e., near the shock) part of the foreshock region. The semi-analytical foreshock description is constructed using simulations with the SOLar Particle Acceleration in Coronal Shocks (SOLPACS) model, which simulates proton acceleration self-consistently coupled with Alfvén wave generation upstream of the shock, and subsequent fitting of the simulation results with suitable analytical functions. PARASOL requires input of solar wind and shock magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) parameters. We evaluate the performance of PARASOL by simulating the 12 July 2012 SEP event, using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) MHD simulation of the solar wind and CME in this event. The PARASOL simulation has reproduced the observed ESP event (E ≲ 5 MeV) in the close vicinity of the shock within one order of magnitude in intensity.https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2025/01/swsc240038/swsc240038.htmlsolar energetic particlesspace weathershock wave |
| spellingShingle | Afanasiev Alexandr Wijsen Nicolas Vainio Rami Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate solar energetic particles space weather shock wave |
| title | Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model |
| title_full | Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model |
| title_fullStr | Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model |
| title_short | Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model |
| title_sort | towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the parasol model |
| topic | solar energetic particles space weather shock wave |
| url | https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2025/01/swsc240038/swsc240038.html |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT afanasievalexandr towardsadvancedforecastingofsolarenergeticparticleeventswiththeparasolmodel AT wijsennicolas towardsadvancedforecastingofsolarenergeticparticleeventswiththeparasolmodel AT vainiorami towardsadvancedforecastingofsolarenergeticparticleeventswiththeparasolmodel |