Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet Regression

The residential construction sector is critical to economic stability and housing availability. Residential construction demands often fluctuate due to demographic, economic, social, or market condition variables. This study seeks to investigate the significance of these external variables and produ...

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Main Authors: Elrasheid Elkhidir, Tirth Patel, James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-05-01
Series:Buildings
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/10/1649
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author Elrasheid Elkhidir
Tirth Patel
James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi
author_facet Elrasheid Elkhidir
Tirth Patel
James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi
author_sort Elrasheid Elkhidir
collection DOAJ
description The residential construction sector is critical to economic stability and housing availability. Residential construction demands often fluctuate due to demographic, economic, social, or market condition variables. This study seeks to investigate the significance of these external variables and produce a predictive model for residential construction demand using ElasticNet regression. Adopting New Zealand as a case study and leveraging datasets from Statistics New Zealand, this research identifies key demographic, economic, and market factors influencing four building categories: retirement villages, apartments, multiunit developments, and standalone houses. The research results indicate that age groups, particularly the 20−39 and 65+ age groups, and economic indicators, such as the house price index and unemployment rates, have high prediction powers. The models showed high accuracy for some categories, with R<sup>2</sup> values exceeding 0.87 for retirement villages and 0.91 for multi-units. Challenges were encountered with standalone houses and apartments due to residual variance. The research findings highlight the importance of targeted urban planning and policy adjustments to satisfy the requirements of specific age groups, address housing affordability and demographic shifts, and cater to prevailing market conditions. This research provides practical insights and guidance for urban planners, public housing agencies, residential developers, and residential contractors while offering a robust methodological framework for predictive modelling in the construction sector.
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spelling doaj-art-18a46cf8cd094a3c9a2771497f528eb42025-08-20T02:33:31ZengMDPI AGBuildings2075-53092025-05-011510164910.3390/buildings15101649Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet RegressionElrasheid Elkhidir0Tirth Patel1James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi2School of Built Environment, Massey University, Auckland 0632, New ZealandDepartment of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New ZealandSchool of Built Environment, Massey University, Auckland 0632, New ZealandThe residential construction sector is critical to economic stability and housing availability. Residential construction demands often fluctuate due to demographic, economic, social, or market condition variables. This study seeks to investigate the significance of these external variables and produce a predictive model for residential construction demand using ElasticNet regression. Adopting New Zealand as a case study and leveraging datasets from Statistics New Zealand, this research identifies key demographic, economic, and market factors influencing four building categories: retirement villages, apartments, multiunit developments, and standalone houses. The research results indicate that age groups, particularly the 20−39 and 65+ age groups, and economic indicators, such as the house price index and unemployment rates, have high prediction powers. The models showed high accuracy for some categories, with R<sup>2</sup> values exceeding 0.87 for retirement villages and 0.91 for multi-units. Challenges were encountered with standalone houses and apartments due to residual variance. The research findings highlight the importance of targeted urban planning and policy adjustments to satisfy the requirements of specific age groups, address housing affordability and demographic shifts, and cater to prevailing market conditions. This research provides practical insights and guidance for urban planners, public housing agencies, residential developers, and residential contractors while offering a robust methodological framework for predictive modelling in the construction sector.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/10/1649residential demanddemand forecastingdemand projectionsconstruction demandresidential forecasting
spellingShingle Elrasheid Elkhidir
Tirth Patel
James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi
Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet Regression
Buildings
residential demand
demand forecasting
demand projections
construction demand
residential forecasting
title Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet Regression
title_full Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet Regression
title_fullStr Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet Regression
title_full_unstemmed Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet Regression
title_short Predictive Modelling for Residential Construction Demands Using ElasticNet Regression
title_sort predictive modelling for residential construction demands using elasticnet regression
topic residential demand
demand forecasting
demand projections
construction demand
residential forecasting
url https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/15/10/1649
work_keys_str_mv AT elrasheidelkhidir predictivemodellingforresidentialconstructiondemandsusingelasticnetregression
AT tirthpatel predictivemodellingforresidentialconstructiondemandsusingelasticnetregression
AT jamesolabodebamidelerotimi predictivemodellingforresidentialconstructiondemandsusingelasticnetregression