Shoreline Change Sensitivity in The Kocasu Stream Delta and The Future (2033 and 2043) Shore Change Predictions
It is important to determine the temporal and spatial changes in coasts with high variability potential for coastal management and planning. In this respect, the aim of this study is to examine the coastal changes that occurred in the Kocasu Stream Delta and the coasts around it in different periods...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Istanbul University Press
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Coğrafya Dergisi |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/59DEDBB9E7C3439C9DEA28263DB20826 |
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| Summary: | It is important to determine the temporal and spatial changes in coasts with high variability potential for coastal management and planning. In this respect, the aim of this study is to examine the coastal changes that occurred in the Kocasu Stream Delta and the coasts around it in different periods between 1980 and 2023 using statistical methods in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool to, determine the dimensions of coastal change sensitivity and to produce coastal change predictions with different scenarios based on past data. In this study, water index analyses and coastline extraction with the threshold method were performed on Landsat satellite images of 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. The shorelines were divided into 1980-2023, 1990-2023, 2000-2023 and 2010-2023 periods to see the change trend from past to present, and the quantitative dimension of the coastal change was analyze using statistical methods in the DSAS tool. Coastal change sensitivity was classified using numerical data and spatially analyzed. Finally, 10 and 20-year coastal change forecasts were produced within the scope of 4 different scenarios using the BETA feature and the Kalman filter model in the DSAS tool. From the analyses, it was determined that there is coastal erosion at the mouth of the Kocasu Stream and coastal accretion at the Yeniköy coast. However, there are different periodical changes. According to the temporal prediction modelling, it is predicted that erosion will continue at the mouth of the Kocasu River. |
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| ISSN: | 1305-2128 |