Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change
Abstract Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-05-01
|
| Series: | Ecosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70278 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849719565533052928 |
|---|---|
| author | K. Clark‐Wolf W. E. Moss B. W. Miller I. Rangwala H. R. Sofaer G. W. Schuurman D. Magness A. J. Symstad J. D. Coop D. B. Bachelet J. J. Barsugli A. Ciocco S. D. Crausbay T. Hoecker J. S. Lewinsohn M. F. Oldfather O. M. W. Richmond R. Rondeau A. Runyon R. E. Russell J. L. Wilkening |
| author_facet | K. Clark‐Wolf W. E. Moss B. W. Miller I. Rangwala H. R. Sofaer G. W. Schuurman D. Magness A. J. Symstad J. D. Coop D. B. Bachelet J. J. Barsugli A. Ciocco S. D. Crausbay T. Hoecker J. S. Lewinsohn M. F. Oldfather O. M. W. Richmond R. Rondeau A. Runyon R. E. Russell J. L. Wilkening |
| author_sort | K. Clark‐Wolf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-17bbb52ba54b453aadbdf72d68ec0e5c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-17bbb52ba54b453aadbdf72d68ec0e5c2025-08-20T03:12:08ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252025-05-01165n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.70278Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global changeK. Clark‐Wolf0W. E. Moss1B. W. Miller2I. Rangwala3H. R. Sofaer4G. W. Schuurman5D. Magness6A. J. Symstad7J. D. Coop8D. B. Bachelet9J. J. Barsugli10A. Ciocco11S. D. Crausbay12T. Hoecker13J. S. Lewinsohn14M. F. Oldfather15O. M. W. Richmond16R. Rondeau17A. Runyon18R. E. Russell19J. L. Wilkening20North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado USAU.S. Geological Survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center Bozeman Montana USAU.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Boulder Colorado USANorth Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado USAU.S. Geological Survey Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center Hawaii National Park Hawaii USANational Park Service Climate Change Response Program Fort Collins Colorado USAU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Kenai National Wildlife Refuge Soldotna Alaska USAU.S. Geological Survey Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center Hot Springs South Dakota USAClark School of Environment and Sustainability Western Colorado University Gunnison Colorado USAOregon State University Corvallis Oregon USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder Boulder Colorado USAU.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Boulder Colorado USAUSDA Forest Service Office of Sustainability and Climate Fort Collins Colorado USAVibrant Planet PBC Missoula Montana USAU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Ecological Services Lakewood Colorado USAU.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Boulder Colorado USAU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Migratory Bird Program and Science Applications Program Lakewood Colorado USAColorado Natural Heritage Program Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USANational Park Service Climate Change Response Program Fort Collins Colorado USAU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Ecological Services Lakewood Colorado USAU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System, Natural Resource Program Center Fort Collins Colorado USAAbstract Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70278climate change adaptationecological methodsnatural resource managementuncertainty |
| spellingShingle | K. Clark‐Wolf W. E. Moss B. W. Miller I. Rangwala H. R. Sofaer G. W. Schuurman D. Magness A. J. Symstad J. D. Coop D. B. Bachelet J. J. Barsugli A. Ciocco S. D. Crausbay T. Hoecker J. S. Lewinsohn M. F. Oldfather O. M. W. Richmond R. Rondeau A. Runyon R. E. Russell J. L. Wilkening Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change Ecosphere climate change adaptation ecological methods natural resource management uncertainty |
| title | Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change |
| title_full | Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change |
| title_fullStr | Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change |
| title_short | Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change |
| title_sort | ecological scenarios embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change |
| topic | climate change adaptation ecological methods natural resource management uncertainty |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70278 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kclarkwolf ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT wemoss ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT bwmiller ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT irangwala ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT hrsofaer ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT gwschuurman ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT dmagness ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT ajsymstad ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT jdcoop ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT dbbachelet ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT jjbarsugli ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT aciocco ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT sdcrausbay ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT thoecker ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT jslewinsohn ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT mfoldfather ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT omwrichmond ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT rrondeau ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT arunyon ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT rerussell ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange AT jlwilkening ecologicalscenariosembracingecologicaluncertaintyinaneraofglobalchange |