Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal study
Objective To explore the transitions of different blood pressure states based on a multistate Markov model among the Chinese elderly population.Setting A community health centre in Xiamen, China.Participants 1833 elderly Chinese people.Methods A multistate Markov model was built based on 5001 blood...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2022-07-01
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author | Bin Zhao Juan Xiong Yuxin Wang Xujuan Zheng Yiqin Zhang Liping Xu Lina Zhou |
author_facet | Bin Zhao Juan Xiong Yuxin Wang Xujuan Zheng Yiqin Zhang Liping Xu Lina Zhou |
author_sort | Bin Zhao |
collection | DOAJ |
description | Objective To explore the transitions of different blood pressure states based on a multistate Markov model among the Chinese elderly population.Setting A community health centre in Xiamen, China.Participants 1833 elderly Chinese people.Methods A multistate Markov model was built based on 5001 blood pressure measurements from 2015 to 2020. Research was conducted to explore the process of hypertension progression, providing information on the transition probability, HR and the mean sojourn time in three blood pressure states, namely normal state, elevated state and hypertensive state.Results Probabilities of moving from the normal state to the hypertensive state in the first year were 16.97% (female) and 21.73% (male); they increased dramatically to 47.31% (female) and 51.70% (male) within a 3-year follow-up period. The sojourn time in the normal state was 1.5±0.08 years. Elderly women in the normal state had a 16.97%, 33.30% and 47.31% chance of progressing to hypertension within 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. The corresponding probabilities for elderly men were 21.73%, 38.56% and 51.70%, respectively. For elderly women starting in the elevated state, the probabilities of developing hypertension were 25.07%, 43.03% and 56.32% in the next 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively; while the corresponding changes for elderly men were 20.96%, 37.65% and 50.86%. Increasing age, body mass index (BMI) and glucose were associated with the probability of developing hypertension from the normal state or elevated state.Conclusions Preventive actions against progression to hypertension should be conducted at an early stage. More awareness should be paid to elderly women with elevated state and elderly men with normal state. Increasing age, BMI and glucose were critical risk factors for developing hypertension. The derived transition probabilities and sojourn time can serve as a significant reference for making targeted interventions for hypertension progression among the Chinese elderly population. |
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institution | Kabale University |
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language | English |
publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
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series | BMJ Open |
spelling | doaj-art-1737e6e371cf4123974990ab998643b32025-02-11T11:00:13ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552022-07-0112710.1136/bmjopen-2021-059805Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal studyBin Zhao0Juan Xiong1Yuxin Wang2Xujuan Zheng3Yiqin Zhang4Liping Xu5Lina Zhou62 Second Affiliated Hospital, Heilongjiang University of Chinese Medicine, Harbin, Heilongjiang, ChinaHealth Science Center, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, ChinaNephrology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen Medical College, Xiamen, Fujian, China2 Medical School, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, ChinaNephrology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen Medical College, Xiamen, Fujian, ChinaNephrology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen Medical College, Xiamen, Fujian, ChinaDepartment of Clinical Data Research, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center; Chongqing University Central Hospital, Chongqing University, Chongqing, ChinaObjective To explore the transitions of different blood pressure states based on a multistate Markov model among the Chinese elderly population.Setting A community health centre in Xiamen, China.Participants 1833 elderly Chinese people.Methods A multistate Markov model was built based on 5001 blood pressure measurements from 2015 to 2020. Research was conducted to explore the process of hypertension progression, providing information on the transition probability, HR and the mean sojourn time in three blood pressure states, namely normal state, elevated state and hypertensive state.Results Probabilities of moving from the normal state to the hypertensive state in the first year were 16.97% (female) and 21.73% (male); they increased dramatically to 47.31% (female) and 51.70% (male) within a 3-year follow-up period. The sojourn time in the normal state was 1.5±0.08 years. Elderly women in the normal state had a 16.97%, 33.30% and 47.31% chance of progressing to hypertension within 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. The corresponding probabilities for elderly men were 21.73%, 38.56% and 51.70%, respectively. For elderly women starting in the elevated state, the probabilities of developing hypertension were 25.07%, 43.03% and 56.32% in the next 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively; while the corresponding changes for elderly men were 20.96%, 37.65% and 50.86%. Increasing age, body mass index (BMI) and glucose were associated with the probability of developing hypertension from the normal state or elevated state.Conclusions Preventive actions against progression to hypertension should be conducted at an early stage. More awareness should be paid to elderly women with elevated state and elderly men with normal state. Increasing age, BMI and glucose were critical risk factors for developing hypertension. The derived transition probabilities and sojourn time can serve as a significant reference for making targeted interventions for hypertension progression among the Chinese elderly population.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/7/e059805.full |
spellingShingle | Bin Zhao Juan Xiong Yuxin Wang Xujuan Zheng Yiqin Zhang Liping Xu Lina Zhou Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal study BMJ Open |
title | Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal study |
title_full | Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal study |
title_fullStr | Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal study |
title_full_unstemmed | Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal study |
title_short | Multistate Markov model application for blood pressure transition among the Chinese elderly population: a quantitative longitudinal study |
title_sort | multistate markov model application for blood pressure transition among the chinese elderly population a quantitative longitudinal study |
url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/7/e059805.full |
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