Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5
Abstract Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project P...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-05-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069151 |
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| author | E. Janssen R. L. Sriver D. J. Wuebbles K. E. Kunkel |
| author_facet | E. Janssen R. L. Sriver D. J. Wuebbles K. E. Kunkel |
| author_sort | E. Janssen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)) to examine past and potential future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation event frequency over the United States. Using the extreme precipitation index as a metric for extreme precipitation change, we find key differences between models and observations. In particular, the CMIP5 models tend to overestimate the number of spring events and underestimate the number of summer events. This seasonal shift in the models is amplified in projections. These results provide a basis for evaluating climate model skill in simulating observed seasonality and changes in regional extreme precipitation. Additionally, we highlight key sources of variability and uncertainty that can potentially inform regional impact analyses and adaptation planning. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-171d859323dc4abd893d4bbdd669a9fe |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-171d859323dc4abd893d4bbdd669a9fe2025-08-20T01:51:46ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072016-05-0143105385539310.1002/2016GL069151Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5E. Janssen0R. L. Sriver1D. J. Wuebbles2K. E. Kunkel3Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana Illinois USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana Illinois USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana Illinois USACooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites‐NC North Carolina State University and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Asheville North Carolina USAAbstract Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)) to examine past and potential future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation event frequency over the United States. Using the extreme precipitation index as a metric for extreme precipitation change, we find key differences between models and observations. In particular, the CMIP5 models tend to overestimate the number of spring events and underestimate the number of summer events. This seasonal shift in the models is amplified in projections. These results provide a basis for evaluating climate model skill in simulating observed seasonality and changes in regional extreme precipitation. Additionally, we highlight key sources of variability and uncertainty that can potentially inform regional impact analyses and adaptation planning.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069151extreme precipitationseasonal precipitationCMIP5climate projections |
| spellingShingle | E. Janssen R. L. Sriver D. J. Wuebbles K. E. Kunkel Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5 Geophysical Research Letters extreme precipitation seasonal precipitation CMIP5 climate projections |
| title | Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5 |
| title_full | Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5 |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5 |
| title_short | Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5 |
| title_sort | seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using cmip5 |
| topic | extreme precipitation seasonal precipitation CMIP5 climate projections |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069151 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ejanssen seasonalandregionalvariationsinextremeprecipitationeventfrequencyusingcmip5 AT rlsriver seasonalandregionalvariationsinextremeprecipitationeventfrequencyusingcmip5 AT djwuebbles seasonalandregionalvariationsinextremeprecipitationeventfrequencyusingcmip5 AT kekunkel seasonalandregionalvariationsinextremeprecipitationeventfrequencyusingcmip5 |