Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite Framework
The air transportation system is composed of multiple elements and belongs to a complex socio-technical system. It is difficult to assess the risk of an aircraft fault because it could constantly change during operation and is influenced by numerous factors. Although traditional methods such as Fail...
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Aerospace |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/12/6/532 |
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| author | Tongyu Shi Yi Gao Long Xu Yantao Wang |
| author_facet | Tongyu Shi Yi Gao Long Xu Yantao Wang |
| author_sort | Tongyu Shi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The air transportation system is composed of multiple elements and belongs to a complex socio-technical system. It is difficult to assess the risk of an aircraft fault because it could constantly change during operation and is influenced by numerous factors. Although traditional methods such as Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) can reflect the degree of fault risk to a certain extent, they cannot accurately quantify and evaluate the fault risk under the multiple influences of human factors, random faults, and external environment. In order to solve these problems, this article proposes a fault risk assessment method for aircraft control systems based on a fault risk composite assessment framework using the Improved Risk Priority Number (IRPN) as the basis for the fault risk assessment. Firstly, a Bayesian network (BN) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) are introduced into the traditional evaluation framework, and a hybrid prediction model combining static and dynamic failure probability is constructed. Subsequently, this paper uses the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) by introducing a risk damping coefficient to analyze the propagation and evolution of fault risks and accurately evaluate the coupling effects between different functional modules in the system. Finally, taking the fault of a jammed flap/slat drive mechanism as an example, the risk of the fault is evaluated by calculating the IRPN. The calculation results show that the comprehensive failure probability of the aircraft control system in this case is 3.503 × 10<sup>−4</sup>. Taking into account the severity, the detection, and the risk damping coefficient, the calculation result of IRPN is 158.00. According to the classification standard of the risk level, the failure risk level of the aircraft belongs to a controlled risk, and emergency measures need to be taken, which is consistent with the actual disposal decision in this case. Therefore, the evaluation framework proposed in this article not only supports a quantitative assessment of system safety and provides a new method for fault risk assessments in aviation safety management but also provides a theoretical basis and practical guidance for optimizing fault response strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-16fabd199bff42dc82f2b164e4357dde |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2226-4310 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aerospace |
| spelling | doaj-art-16fabd199bff42dc82f2b164e4357dde2025-08-20T03:30:24ZengMDPI AGAerospace2226-43102025-06-0112653210.3390/aerospace12060532Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite FrameworkTongyu Shi0Yi Gao1Long Xu2Yantao Wang3College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, ChinaCollege of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, ChinaCollege of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, ChinaCollege of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, ChinaThe air transportation system is composed of multiple elements and belongs to a complex socio-technical system. It is difficult to assess the risk of an aircraft fault because it could constantly change during operation and is influenced by numerous factors. Although traditional methods such as Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) can reflect the degree of fault risk to a certain extent, they cannot accurately quantify and evaluate the fault risk under the multiple influences of human factors, random faults, and external environment. In order to solve these problems, this article proposes a fault risk assessment method for aircraft control systems based on a fault risk composite assessment framework using the Improved Risk Priority Number (IRPN) as the basis for the fault risk assessment. Firstly, a Bayesian network (BN) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) are introduced into the traditional evaluation framework, and a hybrid prediction model combining static and dynamic failure probability is constructed. Subsequently, this paper uses the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) by introducing a risk damping coefficient to analyze the propagation and evolution of fault risks and accurately evaluate the coupling effects between different functional modules in the system. Finally, taking the fault of a jammed flap/slat drive mechanism as an example, the risk of the fault is evaluated by calculating the IRPN. The calculation results show that the comprehensive failure probability of the aircraft control system in this case is 3.503 × 10<sup>−4</sup>. Taking into account the severity, the detection, and the risk damping coefficient, the calculation result of IRPN is 158.00. According to the classification standard of the risk level, the failure risk level of the aircraft belongs to a controlled risk, and emergency measures need to be taken, which is consistent with the actual disposal decision in this case. Therefore, the evaluation framework proposed in this article not only supports a quantitative assessment of system safety and provides a new method for fault risk assessments in aviation safety management but also provides a theoretical basis and practical guidance for optimizing fault response strategies.https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/12/6/532fault risk assessmentaircraft control systemfault risk composite assessment frameworkFRAMGRU |
| spellingShingle | Tongyu Shi Yi Gao Long Xu Yantao Wang Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite Framework Aerospace fault risk assessment aircraft control system fault risk composite assessment framework FRAM GRU |
| title | Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite Framework |
| title_full | Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite Framework |
| title_fullStr | Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite Framework |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite Framework |
| title_short | Research on Aircraft Control System Fault Risk Assessment Based on Composite Framework |
| title_sort | research on aircraft control system fault risk assessment based on composite framework |
| topic | fault risk assessment aircraft control system fault risk composite assessment framework FRAM GRU |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/12/6/532 |
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