Predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machines

Abstract Longitudinal cracking poses a serious threat to the longevity and functionality of continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP). Using structural, traffic, and climatic data taken from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database, this study presents a machine learning system base...

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Main Authors: Ali Alnaqbi, Ghazi G. Al-Khateeb, Waleed Zeiada
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SpringerOpen 2025-05-01
Series:Journal of Engineering and Applied Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s44147-025-00623-x
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author Ali Alnaqbi
Ghazi G. Al-Khateeb
Waleed Zeiada
author_facet Ali Alnaqbi
Ghazi G. Al-Khateeb
Waleed Zeiada
author_sort Ali Alnaqbi
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Longitudinal cracking poses a serious threat to the longevity and functionality of continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP). Using structural, traffic, and climatic data taken from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database, this study presents a machine learning system based on a gradient boosting machine (GBM) optimized using particle swarm optimization (PSO) to forecast longitudinal cracking. The proposed PSO-GBM model achieved the lowest mean RMSE (2.661) and highest R 2 (0.984) across fivefold cross-validation, outperforming baseline GBM, linear regression, random forest, artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector regression (SVR). Compared to traditional and untuned models, the PSO-GBM offers improved generalization and a stronger ability to capture nonlinear interactions among variables. Feature importance and sensitivity analyses identified L3 thickness, age, and AADTT as key predictors. Despite the model’s exceptional predictive accuracy, computational demands and data availability may limit its practical application. However, the results offer useful information for transportation organizations looking to improve maintenance planning techniques and incorporate intelligent predictive tools into pavement management systems.
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institution Kabale University
issn 1110-1903
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series Journal of Engineering and Applied Science
spelling doaj-art-169491815d094a79901285f3a16b4eab2025-08-20T03:48:18ZengSpringerOpenJournal of Engineering and Applied Science1110-19032536-95122025-05-0172112710.1186/s44147-025-00623-xPredictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machinesAli Alnaqbi0Ghazi G. Al-Khateeb1Waleed Zeiada2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of SharjahDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of SharjahDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of SharjahAbstract Longitudinal cracking poses a serious threat to the longevity and functionality of continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP). Using structural, traffic, and climatic data taken from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database, this study presents a machine learning system based on a gradient boosting machine (GBM) optimized using particle swarm optimization (PSO) to forecast longitudinal cracking. The proposed PSO-GBM model achieved the lowest mean RMSE (2.661) and highest R 2 (0.984) across fivefold cross-validation, outperforming baseline GBM, linear regression, random forest, artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector regression (SVR). Compared to traditional and untuned models, the PSO-GBM offers improved generalization and a stronger ability to capture nonlinear interactions among variables. Feature importance and sensitivity analyses identified L3 thickness, age, and AADTT as key predictors. Despite the model’s exceptional predictive accuracy, computational demands and data availability may limit its practical application. However, the results offer useful information for transportation organizations looking to improve maintenance planning techniques and incorporate intelligent predictive tools into pavement management systems.https://doi.org/10.1186/s44147-025-00623-xLongitudinal crackingConcrete pavementParticle swarm optimizationGradient boosting machineHybrid machine learningPavement management systems
spellingShingle Ali Alnaqbi
Ghazi G. Al-Khateeb
Waleed Zeiada
Predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machines
Journal of Engineering and Applied Science
Longitudinal cracking
Concrete pavement
Particle swarm optimization
Gradient boosting machine
Hybrid machine learning
Pavement management systems
title Predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machines
title_full Predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machines
title_fullStr Predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machines
title_full_unstemmed Predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machines
title_short Predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in CRCP using PSO-tuned gradient boosting machines
title_sort predictive modeling of longitudinal cracking in crcp using pso tuned gradient boosting machines
topic Longitudinal cracking
Concrete pavement
Particle swarm optimization
Gradient boosting machine
Hybrid machine learning
Pavement management systems
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s44147-025-00623-x
work_keys_str_mv AT alialnaqbi predictivemodelingoflongitudinalcrackingincrcpusingpsotunedgradientboostingmachines
AT ghazigalkhateeb predictivemodelingoflongitudinalcrackingincrcpusingpsotunedgradientboostingmachines
AT waleedzeiada predictivemodelingoflongitudinalcrackingincrcpusingpsotunedgradientboostingmachines