Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India

Rapid urbanization and associated land use/land cover (LULC) changes significantly affect urban environments, intensifying urban heat islands (UHIs) and environmental challenges. This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of LULC and land surface temperature (LST) changes in Lucknow City, India,...

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Main Authors: Danish Khan, Nizamuddin Khan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-06-01
Series:Geology, Ecology, and Landscapes
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Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/24749508.2025.2524207
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author Danish Khan
Nizamuddin Khan
author_facet Danish Khan
Nizamuddin Khan
author_sort Danish Khan
collection DOAJ
description Rapid urbanization and associated land use/land cover (LULC) changes significantly affect urban environments, intensifying urban heat islands (UHIs) and environmental challenges. This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of LULC and land surface temperature (LST) changes in Lucknow City, India, from 2001 to 2021, and predicts scenarios for 2031. Using Landsat imagery and support vector machine classification, results reveal that built-up areas expanded from 10.93% (127.82 km²) to 25.47% (297.74 km²), while vegetation declined from 71.55% (836.43 km²) to 45.33% (530.04 km²). Mean LST increased from 25.3°C to 29.8°C, with 51.75% of the area reaching 30–35°C in 2021. Cellular automata–artificial neural network (CA-ANN) models predict built-up areas to reach 29.99% (350.51 km²) and vegetation to drop to 42.62% (498.10 km²) by 2031. The ANN model further forecasts UHI intensification, with 58.95% of the city experiencing LSTs above 30°C, reaching a maximum of 42.7°C. The findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable urban planning to mitigate environmental degradation and maintain ecological balance amid ongoing urban expansion in Lucknow.
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publishDate 2025-06-01
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spelling doaj-art-166b59d0f49c48bfab68a04ecddfcf432025-08-20T03:27:56ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeology, Ecology, and Landscapes2474-95082025-06-0112610.1080/24749508.2025.2524207Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, IndiaDanish Khan0Nizamuddin Khan1Interdisciplinary Department of Remote Sensing and GIS Applications, Faculty of Science, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, IndiaDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Science, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, IndiaRapid urbanization and associated land use/land cover (LULC) changes significantly affect urban environments, intensifying urban heat islands (UHIs) and environmental challenges. This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of LULC and land surface temperature (LST) changes in Lucknow City, India, from 2001 to 2021, and predicts scenarios for 2031. Using Landsat imagery and support vector machine classification, results reveal that built-up areas expanded from 10.93% (127.82 km²) to 25.47% (297.74 km²), while vegetation declined from 71.55% (836.43 km²) to 45.33% (530.04 km²). Mean LST increased from 25.3°C to 29.8°C, with 51.75% of the area reaching 30–35°C in 2021. Cellular automata–artificial neural network (CA-ANN) models predict built-up areas to reach 29.99% (350.51 km²) and vegetation to drop to 42.62% (498.10 km²) by 2031. The ANN model further forecasts UHI intensification, with 58.95% of the city experiencing LSTs above 30°C, reaching a maximum of 42.7°C. The findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable urban planning to mitigate environmental degradation and maintain ecological balance amid ongoing urban expansion in Lucknow.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/24749508.2025.2524207Land cover dynamicstemperature dynamicscellular automataartificial neural networksprediction modelling
spellingShingle Danish Khan
Nizamuddin Khan
Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India
Geology, Ecology, and Landscapes
Land cover dynamics
temperature dynamics
cellular automata
artificial neural networks
prediction modelling
title Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India
title_full Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India
title_fullStr Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India
title_full_unstemmed Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India
title_short Modelling urban future: integrating CA-ANN model for comprehensive understanding of land use, land cover changes, and temperature dynamics in Lucknow City, India
title_sort modelling urban future integrating ca ann model for comprehensive understanding of land use land cover changes and temperature dynamics in lucknow city india
topic Land cover dynamics
temperature dynamics
cellular automata
artificial neural networks
prediction modelling
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/24749508.2025.2524207
work_keys_str_mv AT danishkhan modellingurbanfutureintegratingcaannmodelforcomprehensiveunderstandingoflanduselandcoverchangesandtemperaturedynamicsinlucknowcityindia
AT nizamuddinkhan modellingurbanfutureintegratingcaannmodelforcomprehensiveunderstandingoflanduselandcoverchangesandtemperaturedynamicsinlucknowcityindia