Generalizable Storm Surge Risk Modeling
Storm surges present a severe risk to coastal communities and infrastructure, underscoring the critical importance of accurately estimating extreme events such as the 100-year return surge. These estimates are essential not only for effective hazard assessment but also for informing resilient coasta...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Mathematics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/3/486 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850199877488738304 |
|---|---|
| author | Mahlon Scott Hsin-Hsiung Huang |
| author_facet | Mahlon Scott Hsin-Hsiung Huang |
| author_sort | Mahlon Scott |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Storm surges present a severe risk to coastal communities and infrastructure, underscoring the critical importance of accurately estimating extreme events such as the 100-year return surge. These estimates are essential not only for effective hazard assessment but also for informing resilient coastal design. Inspired by principles of robust statistical modeling, this paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical model integrated with Gaussian processes to account for spatial random effects. This approach enhances the precision of long return period storm surge estimates and enables the seamless generalization of predictions to nearby unmonitored coastal regions, much like the way advanced Bayesian frameworks are applied to high-dimensional neuroimaging or spatiotemporal data, bridging gaps between observations and uncharted territories. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1666dfa3c4864249b60b870851ec1365 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-1666dfa3c4864249b60b870851ec13652025-08-20T02:12:30ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-01-0113348610.3390/math13030486Generalizable Storm Surge Risk ModelingMahlon Scott0Hsin-Hsiung Huang1Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USADepartment of Statistics and Data Science, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USAStorm surges present a severe risk to coastal communities and infrastructure, underscoring the critical importance of accurately estimating extreme events such as the 100-year return surge. These estimates are essential not only for effective hazard assessment but also for informing resilient coastal design. Inspired by principles of robust statistical modeling, this paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical model integrated with Gaussian processes to account for spatial random effects. This approach enhances the precision of long return period storm surge estimates and enables the seamless generalization of predictions to nearby unmonitored coastal regions, much like the way advanced Bayesian frameworks are applied to high-dimensional neuroimaging or spatiotemporal data, bridging gaps between observations and uncharted territories.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/3/486coastal hazard assessmentBayesian hierarchical modelextreme eventsGaussian processlong return period predictionstorm surge estimation |
| spellingShingle | Mahlon Scott Hsin-Hsiung Huang Generalizable Storm Surge Risk Modeling Mathematics coastal hazard assessment Bayesian hierarchical model extreme events Gaussian process long return period prediction storm surge estimation |
| title | Generalizable Storm Surge Risk Modeling |
| title_full | Generalizable Storm Surge Risk Modeling |
| title_fullStr | Generalizable Storm Surge Risk Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Generalizable Storm Surge Risk Modeling |
| title_short | Generalizable Storm Surge Risk Modeling |
| title_sort | generalizable storm surge risk modeling |
| topic | coastal hazard assessment Bayesian hierarchical model extreme events Gaussian process long return period prediction storm surge estimation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/3/486 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mahlonscott generalizablestormsurgeriskmodeling AT hsinhsiunghuang generalizablestormsurgeriskmodeling |