Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Daniel Evangelista Régis, Rinaldo Artes
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção (ABEPRO) 2016-06-01
Series:Production
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132016000200330&lng=en&tlng=en
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Summary:Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.
ISSN:1980-5411